At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the most important data from the Federal Reserve, the core PCE, was released. Although the CPI and PPI data for July have both declined, there has not been much change in the core PCE, with expectations remaining the same as last month at 3.3%. This is not very good news for the market, as they hope to see inflation decrease. However, if expectations can be maintained, it will not increase the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. The market's expectation for a rate hike in September has significantly decreased from before, with only about 38% remaining so far. The market still recognizes the current inflation data. The concern of the Federal Reserve now is not about sudden inflation spiraling out of control, but about inflation staying above 3% for a long time without coming down. Several officials in the minutes of the July meeting are willing to support interest rate hikes, and many officials believe that if inflation cannot continue to fall back to 2%, interest rate hikes will still be necessary in the future. The day before yesterday, Boston Fed President Collins even publicly stated again that if the upcoming data cannot prove that inflation continues to decline, the Fed may soon need to raise interest rates. So overall, the core PCE of 3.3% is basically in line with expectations, and the market is unlikely to have a significant reaction. But if inflation continues to rise in the future, the market is still expected to feel uncomfortable. And this data may be difficult to change the fact that inflation may rise in August, mainly due to oil. Even though crude oil prices have started to fall recently, the average price of regular gasoline in the United States is still about 3% higher than in July as of August. The Cleveland Fed's current forecast also reflects this issue. It is expected that the overall PCE in July will be about 3.65% year-on-year, but it will rise again to 3.73% in August. The core PCE slightly increased from 3.29% in July to 3.34%. So if Hormuz really gradually restores passage to non hostile countries and the Persian Gulf oil supply continues to recover, the probability of oil prices and US gasoline prices continuing to decline in September will significantly increase. At that time, the inflationary pressure faced by the Federal Reserve may truly begin to ease. If not, then September will really be in trouble. @Gate Crypto、 US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, South Korean stocks, gold CFD、 Predicting one-stop trading in the market