Pre Market Thoughts - 26 Aug 26 Yields are about 6bps lower across the curve with WTI also down about 5% since yesterday. In my post yesterday, i made the case that we seen the high in yields and this will force an epic short covering. How am i playing this? Instead of buying 30y treasuries, i personally have bought some OTM UB futures options. These options will pay out 100x or more if my views are correct...Talk about convexity. (No pun intended) For risk events, today is NVDA earnings. This is the earnings with the lowest amount of event premium being priced in. NVDA has not been realizing on a vol basis for some time and i think it is due for a break out. Buying vol into the event may realize. In other news, Deepseek ARR hit about 400-500M last month and its gross margins are about 45% on inference. Again - remember that Anthropic is earning about 85% on inference. The "cheap" chinese players? ~45%. Dwarkesh and Patel also has a podcast where they talked about compute. You should take a look. The tldr is that Compute costs could soar even higher. On BABA, very interesting that Jack Ma himself bought and then Joe Tsai made another purchase. The last insider purchase for BABA was at ~$67 and the stock rallied to 190 over the next 6-9 months. I think there is some signal here to watch for. In Asia trading, both KOSPI and NKY are up for the day. $0660 continues to trade firm and hang around its 1.7m KRW support levels. Meanwhile SNDK is languishing slightly below MU in pre market trading on YMTC news. Crypto markets have front ran the devaluation trade. At this point, i am advocating for short term caution on BTC and some select alts. They in particular look vulnerable should we get a retracement in risk. My playbook for this would not be to go short, but rather get ready to pinpoint which assets to buy for the next leg of the move. In other news. I have been busy working on http://terminal.gambit.zone. I will be writing a more formal post about it soon. It is now taking its final shape as a venue where people can trade, research and chat. Coming into crypto from tradfi, instead of having 1 singular platform (Bloomberg) - i had to toggle through X, Telegram, various exchanges. I dont know why this should be the case. Currently, the product is still very new so please let me know where i can make improvements on it. It currently only supports 1 venue only - Hyperliquid. Do check it out and let me know!(degentrading)