BITWU.ETH 🔆|Aug 26, 2026 08:33
How to use good assets in hand to do a good job of buying and buying at the bottom later?
That's exactly the topic I've been thinking about lately,
So let's join OKX Million Planner: How do I allocate 1 million now?
First, let me explain the logic I mentioned. Don't blindly copy it, as it may lead to problems,
Everyone has different conditions, market awareness, acceptable drawdown, and understanding of assets, so building an investment framework depends on oneself. I am just giving you a reference:
Firstly, the current background is:
Bitcoin: Native has recently surged by 30%, with the US Treasury expanding its long bond buybacks, long-term interest rates under pressure, and the weakening of the US dollar. "Dollar depreciation/debt trade" is becoming a new macro trading logic.
At the same time, from August 17th to 24th, the cumulative net inflow of US spot BTC ETF in six trading days was approximately 2.255 billion US dollars, indicating that there has been a significant influx of spot funds in this round of market.
But the problem is also clear: BTC has been rapidly rising in a short period of time, and $80000-83000 is becoming a new watershed. The market is currently generally concerned about the first retracement of the 75000 to 76000 line, as well as the possibility of acceleration after a real breakthrough of $83000;
Moreover, the next 30 days will coincide with the PPI on September 10, CPI on September 11, and FOMC on September 15-16, so this month is likely not to be a quiet one-way street, probably a fluctuating monkey market!
Here are my coping strategies:
one ️⃣ 30% spot basic warehouse: Let yourself be present first·
300000 U is not filled at once.
First installment: 150000 U
I will first establish a 15% base position for BTC in the 78K-80K range.
The reason is simple:
We must always acknowledge one possibility: if there is really no turning back this time, were you there? Stepping into the sky is an opportunity for the entire bull market.
So this payment is not because I think 79K is cheap, but because I am willing to pay a little insurance premium for 'not empty'.
two ️⃣ Second transaction: 150000 U
I won't buy immediately, priority should be given to waiting for the normal return of 76K-78K.
If you don't give it a chance, it's okay. Hang on a dual currency wealth management in this range and enjoy the interest.
Because there is also a right-hand strategy behind it.
three ️⃣ 10% fixed investment position: specifically designed to deal with 'I don't know'
Divide 100000 U into four parts.
Fixed weekly purchase of 25000 U BTC.
Regardless of whether the price was 76K, 80K, or 85K at that time.
Why?
Because there are always some things in investment that we cannot predict.
Since you cannot predict, don't pretend to be able to predict.
The significance of investing in a fixed warehouse is not to obtain the lowest cost, but to reduce the cost of misjudgment.
This 10% is equivalent to the "anti ego device" in the entire system.
four ️⃣ 45% mobile funds: the part that truly determines the rate of return
450000 U, I split it into four bullets.
First tier: $75K-76K
Invest 150000 units.
This is what I think is currently the most worthwhile wait for a normal rebound.
If BTC returns here from 81K, but ETFs, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, and fundamentals do not show significant deterioration, I would consider it a profit taking release, not a trend disruption.
I am willing to buy this kind of drop.
Second tier: $70K-72K
Invest 100000 U.
If it falls here, market sentiment must have clearly deteriorated.
But as long as the core logic remains unchanged, I will actually be happier.
Because my principle has always been:
Price decline and logic deterioration are two completely different things.
The price has dropped, but the logic has not changed:
Call it an opportunity.
The price hasn't dropped much, the logic has changed:
It's called risk.
Third tier: $65K-67K
Invest another 100000 U.
If I really come back to this area in the next 30 days, I won't change my plan temporarily due to market panic.
Because:
The true left-hand trading is not about being brave when it falls, but about deciding what to do before it falls.
But this is the last left side fund.
I won't restock indefinitely.
Fourth tier: Breaking through $83K
The last 100000 U is specifically reserved for the right side.
I bought only when the daily line effectively reached $83K and then retraced to the $81.5K-83K range without falling below it again.
This 100000 U is very important.
Because it solves another mistake: only allowing oneself to buy more and more as one falls, but not allowing the market to prove that one has missed the low point.
Previously, my system was biased towards the left side, but now I am willing to give the right side 10% error correction authority, but it is only 10%. I will not overturn the entire strategy due to FOMO.
five ️⃣ The remaining 15%, I'd rather do nothing
The last 150000 U, I can earn USDT flexibly and call it at any time.
Many people believe that funds must be fully invested.
I don't see it that way anymore.
Cash itself is a position.
It's not buying yield.
It bought:
Choice right.
If a black swan suddenly appears, I have money.
If BTC gives an outrageous price, I have money.
If my judgment is completely wrong, I still have the qualification to rethink.
So this 15%, in principle, doesn't need to be moved for a month.
six ️⃣ When will it take profit?
For me, BTC is a long-term asset that I need to continuously increase in quantity, rather than a trading commodity that must be cleared after 30 days.
My trading style is not short-term and volatile, so once I buy, I may wait for a big market trend, and talking about taking profits is a false proposition.
It can only be said that this topic may need to be considered at least after doubling.
seven ️⃣ When will I admit my mistake?
This is what I consider to be the most important part of the entire plan.
I will never admit my mistake just because the price has dropped.
But if two of the following three conditions occur, I will pause the entire buying plan:
① BTC has closed below $63K for two consecutive days;
② The cumulative net outflow of BTC ETF in the United States exceeded 1 billion US dollars in five days;
③ After the CPI/FOMC, the macro logic has clearly reversed, and the US dollar and long-term US Treasury yields have re synchronized and strengthened significantly.
The three satisfy two conditions:
I have stopped placing orders, cancelled outstanding purchases, and will no longer continue to replenish positions.
All remaining funds will be returned to USDT.
Because at this point, what happened was no longer just a price drop, but possibly a change in the conditions that I initially relied on to go long.
In investment, one must learn to distinguish between the fact that the market currently does not recognize me and the fact that I have been proven wrong.
The former can wait. The latter must be reconsidered.
eight ️⃣ What is the biggest risk of this plan?
1) BTC surged to 100K in one breath.
So I will definitely step out a part of it.
Accept.
Making less profit is not a risk, making big losses is a risk.
2) The logic of the US Treasury Department and the depreciation of the US dollar has reversed, with the Fed becoming more hawkish than market expectations and long-term interest rates rising again.
This will undermine the current very important macro logic.
3) ETF funds have shifted from continuous inflows to continuous outflows.
Whether this round of market trend can transition from "short covering" to a true new trend ultimately requires real spot buying to relay.
nine ️⃣ Final summary:
My logic is simple, it is not to bet on the rise and fall of BTC with 1 million U, but to use this 1 million U to buy the initiative in facing different market paths in the future.
Rising to 100000, I have BTC.
Falling to 70000, I have U.
Falling to over 60000, I still have the courage and plan.
If the fact proves me wrong, I don't have any leverage to force me to bear it.
This may not be the plan with the highest monthly return in the future, but it is the most suitable plan for my style.
Don't expect to win every time, just leave room for yourself at all times.
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