There are signs of easing in the US and Iran, while Besant is actively releasing repurchase information, and there are also signs of short-term peaks in long-term bond yields. In the morning, here is https://(x.com)/qinbufark/status/2092434344807936314? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A, after more than two weeks of talking about the US Iran game, we finally see a moment that can be called a turning point. Last week, in the last part of the tweet that sorted out Besson's special toolbox, we talked about three factors: oil price, excessive issuance of treasury bond, and the tide of AI technology debt issuance. The second and third points are structural, but Besant can do something about the second point. The first point is that oil prices affect Trump's decision. Although increasing the repurchase scale and adjusting the maturity ratio are only temporary solutions, strong determination can also bring short-term effects. The decline in oil prices has a more direct impact on inflation expectations. Last Friday here https://(x.com)/qinbufark/status/2090623459391094800? S=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A said: "The more Besant talks and makes more moves, it means that Besant and Trump are more concerned about the issue of long-term bond yield. The yield goes up: On the one hand, it forces these temporary and fundamental measures to come out as soon as possible, On the other hand, it forces us to resolve the issue of the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible; In the mid-term, I still believe that Besant has the ability to suppress the upward trend of yield. After all, he does have quite a few toolboxes, In particular, if Trump cannot afford to compromise on the Strait issue, then the oil price problem will be solved. ” Now it seems that Nathan is indeed working hard in this direction The last time the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds exceeded 5% and the yield of 30-year US Treasury bonds exceeded 5.2% was in October 2023, when the term premium soared and the real interest rate also rose significantly. Now, looking back and sorting out, several key factors that led to the reversal of the trend of US bond yields from the end of October to the beginning of November in 2023 are: 1) In mid October, the Ministry of Finance repurchased the market, and the Federal Reserve governors used their mouths to rescue the market; 2) In late October, Wall Street tycoon Bill Ackermann publicly announced the liquidation of short positions in US Treasury bonds and the increase in holdings; 3) On November 1, 2023, the Federal Reserve suspended interest rate hikes and acknowledged that long-term interest rates could replace further rate hikes, releasing expectations of no further rate hikes; 4) The Ministry of Finance's subsequent refinancing statement reduces the issuance of long-term bonds and mitigates the impact of long-term bond supply; 5) The subsequent release of non farm payroll and inflation data for October 2023 weakened, which is an important confirmation of macroeconomic fundamentals, making the decline in yields sustainable. This series of combination punches completely reversed the trend of US bond yields at that time. There is currently a possibility to replicate some of the logic of 2023, with the core being: 1) The oil price can indeed come down, preferably below 80 if it falls below 85; 2) The Ministry of Finance continues to vigorously repurchase and adjust the maturity ratio to reduce the issuance of long-term bonds; 3) Walsh's statement at the central bank's annual meeting on Friday, as long as it is not tough, does not raise interest rates, and slightly hints at economic data, the market may understand; If the yield reverses downwards, two of the three macro factors that suppressed the market will be lifted, which is also a good thing for the market in the short term.