The IMF says AI is becoming the engine of global growth, but who’s really getting the money? The IMF chief’s statement does sound inspiring—AI investment is spreading from the U.S. to the rest of the world, with the potential to become a global economic growth driver. Sounds great, but let’s be real: who’s actually making sustained profits, and which countries are benefiting? What’s the true backdrop of the global economy? On one hand, AI is telling a story; on the other, the Iran war is driving up energy prices. AI talks about efficiency and cost reduction; energy shocks talk about inflation, costs, and reality. Is this purely good news? Not really—it’s more like energy is being choked off, and everyone’s forced to find a new narrative to hold things together. Right now, aside from AI, there’s really no other decent growth point. Real estate is struggling, consumption is weak, manufacturing is de-stocking. So what else can we talk about? It’s gotta be AI. But here’s the question—who’s actually getting the money? The ones shouting about large models and applications every day are probably not the ones eating the meat. The ones really counting the cash are those dealing with servers, electricity, cooling, storage, and PCBs—those hard assets. Chips already had their price surge. So who’s next? The underlying supply chain. If you casually check out a factory in China making server power supplies, cooling systems, or PCBs, chances are their order books are full. U.S. tech giants are expanding data centers, Southeast Asia is building AI infrastructure, and the Middle East is pushing AI transformation. No matter who wins, the ones selling the shovels always win. The IMF’s statement, translated into plain language, is basically: backing capital’s move from U.S. stocks to global manufacturing. U.S. tech stocks are already so expensive that even Buffett is hoarding cash. There’s gotta be a new place to park money. Global manufacturing, especially supply chains tied to AI infrastructure, is the next reservoir. In the short term, it’s a tug-of-war. In the long term, compute infrastructure is being rolled out. The AI narrative and energy shocks will keep pulling against each other—it’s unrealistic to expect AI to completely overshadow the energy impact. But in the long run, compute infrastructure is indeed spreading globally: the U.S., Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin America—they’re all building data centers. If emerging markets can keep up with this wave of infrastructure, capital will flow their way. At the end of the day, the real focus in this AI story isn’t who’s launching a new model, but who’s building the stage for those models. The ones selling shovels are always more stable than the ones digging for gold. What do you think? In the AI race, are you more inclined to chase applications or focus on the supply chain? Let’s chat in the comments. #AI #GlobalEconomy #SupplyChain #EnergyCrisis