May there be a turning point in the US Iran game? From the earliest 13th, https://(x.com)/qinba frank/status/2087903125399011470? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A talked about the long-term trend of the US Iran game, and after almost two weeks, we can finally see significant changes. Sort out the progress and situation of the game between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday this week: 1. Last weekend, it was reported that Iraq requested a special pass from Iran, and Iran did indeed issue the pass. This means that some countries are recognizing Iran's ability to block the passage of ships, and Iran no longer pursues blocking all ships, but instead rewards friendly countries and divides the US sanctions alliance through selective release. It seems that Iran is transforming its comprehensive blockade into selective navigation, turning the Strait of Hormuz into an "oil price valve" that can be tightened or relaxed at any time. 2. On Monday night, the US Treasury Department announced a sanctions plan that, upon closer inspection, is very tough on Iran's military procurement, shadow fleet, cryptocurrency, shipping services, and overseas commercial assets. And it also clearly stated that it does not accept Iran's institutionalization of special passes, service fees, and escort, and threatened to impose secondary sanctions on participants. But the sanctions on Iran's oil cash flow core are clearly softer: there are no immediate sanctions on China's large banks, core ports, major refineries, and key RMB settlement nodes, nor are there immediate penalties for all countries that continue to purchase Iranian oil. Compared to the extremely high expectations previously made by Beisen, the landing on the first night was only about 50-60% of the expected strength, which is significantly softer. 3. On Monday and Tuesday of this week, Pakistani Army Chief of Staff Munir spoke with Trump before visiting Tehran, and then held talks with the Iranian President, Speaker of Parliament, Secretary of Iran's Supreme Security Council (represented by Mujtaba), and Minister of Interior. The Pakistani Minister of Interior subsequently used the phrase 'significant progress' directly. As Pakistan is the only country with nuclear weapons in the Islamic world, and then Pakistan has borders with Iran, as well as close cooperation in trade and anti-terrorism, Pakistan has close relations with China and the United States at the same time, and has just signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement with Saudi Arabia and Türkiye. As Pakistan's de facto supreme authority, Munir's voice and influence cannot be underestimated. Reuters quoted Pakistani government sources as saying that Iran expressed a general willingness to resume peace talks during the talks, while Pakistan told Iran that the United States may withdraw some of its latest decisions before or during the new round of negotiations. This is an implicit exchange: Iran is cooling down in the Strait of Hormuz and military operations; The United States responds with sanctions enforcement, maritime blockades, or oil exemptions 4. Last night, Iran and Oman jointly issued a statement proposing a technical framework for the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a fairly specific implementation structure. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Babadi further explained that the temporary route into the Persian Gulf will completely pass through Iranian waters, while the route out of the Persian Gulf will pass through Iranian and Omani waters; Both parties will negotiate a permanent route within 30-60 days. It seems that both sides have already agreed on which route to take, who will participate in traffic management, and who will provide safety services in the future. This is an important signal that the ceasefire has entered the preparation stage for implementation To string together the four pieces of information above is: 1) Iran has transformed its military control over the strait into a gesture of goodwill towards friendly countries, easing the pressure of air travel disruptions; 2) Besent's' Economic Normandy 'deliberately failed to reach the most critical point on the first day. Very similar to a typical negotiation design: the legal framework is established first, threats are issued first, but the most destructive execution is postponed. 3) Pakistan strongly mediates and aligns the wishes and demands of both sides; 4) Iran's Amanda has established a technical framework for navigation, laying the foundation for future implementation; The mediation results revealed from Pakistan: Both sides reached a consensus on the ceasefire terms; The terms include freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz; Negotiations and technical meetings will be initiated based on the Islamabad memorandum. It can be seen that both parties should agree to return to an existing agreement framework and determine the implementation sequence for the next stage. And the actions of both parties are: Continue to be firm in public stance and gradually exchange reversible concessions in practical operation. This is a controlled crisis management model of "pressure, release, and negotiation at the same time". Now looking at the concessions made by both sides, the United States may actually accept: 1) Iran and Oman jointly discuss future management and de facto control; 2) The temporary passage into the Persian Gulf completely passes through Iranian waters; 3) The United States has re entered negotiations before comprehensive sanctions are actually implemented. 4) Further contact with blockades and sanctions in the future And on the Iranian side: 1) Establish temporary waterways for free or safe navigation of merchant ships; 2) Continue to discuss long-term arrangements for 30-60 days in the future; 3) See if the United States really lifts sanctions and blockades, as Iran still has the ability to block the strait at any time; Both sides are likely to have reached a political consensus on stopping direct upgrades, restoring merchant shipping, establishing temporary waterways, and restarting negotiations on the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding; We will discuss the lifting of sanctions and blockades, the passage of warships, nuclear issues, and long-term management of the strait in the future. In July and August, Trump estimated that he had to accept that the Strait of Hormuz could not return to its pre war state. The earliest was at the end of July here https://(x.com)/qinba frank/status/2082316157416321504? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A discussed. But if we can return to the state of the Islamabad memorandum in June, it will also be good for the market in the short term. This article is sponsored by @ bitget_zh, titled 'Bitget Buying US Stocks: Instant Entry, Smooth Trading'