Shorting oil is something I firmly believe I got right, but I really didn’t expect Iran to achieve a partial victory by choosing who gets passage rights. I’ve always thought that Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz was a provocation against global sovereign nations, especially those countries that would never bow to oppressive forces. These nations should unite and demand Iran restore normal navigation. However, I underestimated how most countries prioritize their own interests when dealing with Iran. Iran doesn’t even need to restore Hormuz to its pre-war state. All it has to do is remove enough countries from the blockade list—letting China, India, Iraq, and some European and Asian countries continue accessing energy—and the international coalition demanding a full resolution to the Hormuz issue becomes hard to sustain. The ones truly restricted now are mainly the U.S., Israel, and countries Iran identifies as engaging in hostile actions. This could turn the Hormuz issue from a global concern into a bilateral conflict between the U.S. and Iran. And the market doesn’t need Hormuz to return to 100% normal navigation; it just needs to see a significant recovery in daily oil flow. So at this point, it’s the U.S. and countries hostile to Iran that are feeling the pain. I originally thought the U.S. and other nations would pressure Iran back to the negotiating table, ultimately forcing it to restore navigation. But now, it seems the more likely outcome is Iran gradually deciding to open passage, pulling cooperative countries out one by one, leaving the U.S. and a few adversarial nations to continue the standoff. From the perspective of international order and freedom of navigation, I don’t like this result. From a trading perspective, I accept it. After all, we’re shorting oil, not looking for justice in the market. I’ve started making money, but I’ve lost interest in talking about Bitcoin for now. Let’s revisit it tomorrow. @Gate Crypto, U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, Korean stocks, gold, CFDs, prediction markets—all in one platform.