Phyrex|Aug 25, 2026 18:46
Based on the current information, Trump’s so-called 'economic exile actions' haven’t achieved the expected results. Today, China once again made a public statement, clearly expressing that China’s cooperation with Iran is conducted within the framework of international law and should not be interfered with, emphasizing that all necessary measures will be taken to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.
Although China’s stance is quite strong, the U.S. has yet to respond. The so-called additional tariffs on China have not been implemented either. The market now generally believes this is just Trump’s 'impotent rage.'
While the U.S. hasn’t gained any advantage, oil prices have indeed dropped. Unfortunately, this decline has nothing to do with the U.S. Instead, the market has realized that Iran is preparing to gradually open the Strait of Hormuz to non-hostile countries.
So, the selective opening of Hormuz that I’ve been considering for a while now is becoming more and more realistic. Iraq, China, India, and other countries that haven’t participated in military actions or economic blockades against Iran might also have the chance to receive similar arrangements. As for the U.S., Israel, and other countries identified by Iran as participating in hostile actions, they will continue to face restrictions.
If this model expands, the restoration of global oil supply won’t need to wait for the U.S. and Iran to sign a new peace agreement. Oil from the Persian Gulf can start flowing out bit by bit again, and the war premium previously factored into the market due to a full blockade of Hormuz will continue to decrease.
This would be quite embarrassing for Trump.
Sure, lower oil prices align with U.S. interests, as domestic gasoline prices and inflation pressures would decrease. But the reason behind the drop has nothing to do with the U.S.; instead, Iran has taken the lead. To be fair, Iran’s actions are essentially rogue-like, but unfortunately, no one globally wants to provoke Iran.
For those of us shorting oil, justice might not be as important as actual profits.
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