This round of uptrend can no longer be seen as a typical bear market rebound, but breaking through the downward trend and confirming a new bull market are still two stages. After nearly two months of sideways trading between $60000 and $66000, BTC has consistently hit the EMA20, MA120, MA200, and long-term downtrend lines. OKX MACD accelerates expansion, the original bearish structure has been disrupted, and the medium-term trend has turned from weak to strong. However, the short term is indeed overheated. RSI6 has exceeded 95, RSI12 is close to 89, and KDJ continues to remain at a high level of passivation, indicating that there are both real buying and short clearing and leverage chasing in this bullish candlestick. The most easily squeezed out bears have already left, and the subsequent rise cannot rely solely on short selling. ETF and spot funds must continue to relay. The continuous net inflow of US spot ETFs indicates that there is indeed incremental capital in the market, but this can only increase the credibility of breakthroughs and cannot guarantee that prices will not rebound. The policy aspect is still trading expectations for the Clarity Act, but the bill has not yet been implemented. Subsequent PCE, Nvidia financial reports, and changes in US Treasury yields may amplify high-level fluctuations. According to the historical sample of "long-term sideways trend followed by a weekly increase of more than 20%", the probability of continuing to rise after one month exceeds 80%, and after three months it is about 70%. But the median maximum drawdown for the next 12 weeks is also 14.5%, which corresponds to approximately $67700 based on the high point of this round. So even if BTC retraces between $68000 and $72000, it doesn't necessarily mean it will turn bear again, it's more likely to confirm whether this breakthrough is effective. Next, focus on three areas: 80000 to 81200 USD: Short term divergence zone $84000 to $85000: Core Pressure for This Round 68000 to 72000 US dollars: Trend retracement and spot acceptance zone My judgment is that BTC has already turned bullish in the medium term, but it is not suitable to continue chasing higher in the short term. A more reasonable way to go is to first oscillate at a high level or confirm a retracement before moving upwards. If there is a takeover between $71000 and $73000, there is still a chance to return to above $85000 in the future. If it falls below $70000, the next step is to look at $68000. Only when the daily entity falls back to $65000 to $66000 and returns to the original box, will this breakthrough need to be re evaluated as a fake breakthrough.