[Prediction Markets Bearish on Bessent's 'Market Support': Barclays Says Fair Yield for 10-Year U.S. Treasury Could Reach 4.95%] BlockBeats News, August 25: Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket both indicate a higher probability of continued increases in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield this year. According to Kalshi data, there is a 56% chance that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will reach or exceed 4.75% by the end of 2026, and a 27% chance it will surpass 5%. Polymarket data shows about a two-thirds probability that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed 4.8% at least once this year. Although U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent is attempting to lower yields through measures such as expanding long-term Treasury buybacks, the market response remains pessimistic. Barclays strategists believe that factors such as sticky inflation, fiscal deficits, Treasury supply, and term premiums could still drive yields higher. They estimate the fair yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury to be around 4.95%, approximately 25 basis points above the current level. Additionally, rising Japanese government bond yields and increased AI capital expenditures may further weaken overseas investors' demand for U.S. Treasuries. At the same time, a 10-year U.S. Treasury yield of around 4.7% has begun to pose stronger competition to U.S. equities, signaling that the market may be transitioning from the 'TINA' (There Is No Alternative) era to the 'TARA' (There Are Real Alternatives) era. [Original Article Link]