[UBS: Market Vulnerability Index Hits Extreme Levels, September Fed Meeting and November Midterm Elections May Trigger Volatility] BlockBeats News, August 25 — According to UBS's latest report, its market vulnerability monitoring tool, the 'Turbu-lens' index, reached the highest alert level of 1.0 on August 19, marking the first time it has peaked since late 2024. This index aggregates approximately 100 data points, including high-yield corporate CDS, G10 currency volatility, and S&P 500 CTA positioning, to assess potential market crash risks. The UBS U.S. Equity Derivatives Research team, led by Maxwell Grinacoff, noted that historical data shows markets often experience significant volatility after the index hits 1.0. The two key risk events currently facing the market are the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting in September and the U.S. midterm elections in November. The options market anticipates that the S&P 500 could see single-day volatility of around 1% surrounding these events. UBS believes that while market vulnerability is already at extreme levels, the specific factors that could trigger significant market swings remain unclear. Investors should closely monitor changes in Federal Reserve policy and U.S. political developments. Previously, after this index peaked in late 2024, the VIX saw a noticeable rise. [Original Link]