8.25 New bull market starting or the last bounce of the old bull market? 1. In past cycles, bear market bottoms usually appeared around the end of the year, but this time it’s in Q3—much earlier than before. 2. Previous bear market bottoms were accompanied by stock index declines forming a base, but this time the stock index is at a new high. 3. Historically, only in the last bull market did BTC drop from $64K to $30K and then hit a new high. Same 50% drop, same July bottom, and the stock index was also near a new high. No need to rigidly stick to past patterns, but stay cautious about this possibility.