Dreaming back to the bear bottom of 2023: If given a chance to step back on STH-RP .. Yesterday, I shared with you a detailed trading plan for the upcoming bull market (quoted below), In the section on warehouse expansion strategy, I proposed two plans, One of them is to create a high-level Higher Low. The theme of this article, to some extent, is precisely from a historical perspective, Assess the potential areas of this Higher Low ： // The indicator in the attached figure is' STH-RP with deviation adjustment ', and the concept is reviewed as follows: ➡️ Calculate the mean and standard deviation of STH-MVRV since 2018 ➡️ Multiply STH-RP by the mean ± n standard deviations of STH-MVRV ➡️ The reason for using data after 2018 as the calculation benchmark is that, The reason is that STH-MVRV after 2018 exhibits significant mean regression characteristics. Red line=STH-RP multiplied by the mean of STH-MVRV plus 1 standard deviation Yellow line=STH-RP Green line=STH-RP multiplied by "Mean of STH-MVRV -1 standard deviation" Blue line=STH-RP multiplied by 'Mean of STH-MVRV -1.5 standard deviations' Detailed review of the bottoming time supported by the blue line: https://((((((x.com))))))/market_beggar/status/2026474493749989766 Analysis of all historical cases supported by the blue line: https://((((((x.com))))))/market_beggar/status/2018501752103047340 // Yesterday's content was relatively stiff and complex, so today I would like to have a casual chat with you all. As shown in the attached figure, from the perspective of the STH-RP model with deviation adjustment: ➡️ 2023: Fall to the blue line and rebound ->hit the bottom of the green line ->retrace to STH-RP ➡️ Now: Falling to the blue line and rebounding ->Stepping onto the green line to bottom out -> ❓ The trend of BTC in the past six months is almost identical to that of the bull bear transition in 2023, Although carving a boat and seeking a sword is not advisable, the 'STH-RP's stepping back' is definitely a signal worth paying attention to. Carving a Boat Must Die: What is' Future Data Leakage '? https://((((((x.com))))))/market_beggar/status/1891335031177851380 Berg's old friends all know: STH-RP is often regarded as the 'BTC bull bear boundary', as stated in the following quote, The main basis for this warehouse building is the right signal of "breaking through STH-RP". The current STH-RP is 69572 The rise in the past few days has caused prices to rise sharply and deviate significantly from STH-RP, If in the future we can see BTC retrace to the position of STH-RP, It's like the market is testing the attitude of the 'short-term holder group', As long as there is no direct drop below, it is not easy to trigger panic selling among short-term holders, Furthermore, it increases the probability of "completing the return step and standing firm to attack" History never repeats itself, but it always rhymes If the market can really replicate the trend of the bull market in 2023, Perhaps we can usher in a golden trading window to step back on STH-RP The above is today's content, hoping to be helpful to everyone // Related reading resources Berg Chain Weekly Report (91): The Largest Short Course Event in History https://((((((x.com))))))/market_beggar/status/2091348290642071786 BTC Crowdfunding Trend Rating Update: Different from Previous Continuous Crowdfunding Trends https://((((((x.com))))))/market_beggar/status/2090612818173395444 Strange Turn: The proportion of 1y-3y holders begins to decline https://((((((x.com))))))/market_beggar/status/2089528447320428775