Thoughts on Gold from the JPM commodities desk: The Middle East backdrop remains opaque, and tariff headlines over the weekend have kept the macro risk premium elevated. With core PCE and Jackson Hole on deck this week, the pause in positioning is understandable. PCE will be particularly important. Research is looking for a relatively high print, and the market has so far been reluctant to fully price out a September Fed move—leaving rates sensitive to any upside inflation surprise and any shift in messaging from Jackson Hole. Trading think we trade in the $4,500/$5,000 range here, any hot data will see a retest of the 200dma. But on the contrary should we see cooler prints and the market is not convinced with the outcome of Jackson Hole, we might very well be trading closer to 5k next week. Given gold had gone $1,100 in 1 month in January, the desk doesn’t think that is outside the realm of possibility. Further, the negative data over the weekend hasn't really quenched the momentum in gold and we still trade decently higher on the day.(zerohedge)