《Mr. Xiaolong · Today's Thoughts》 ---- When public consensus becomes highly unified, beware of the possibility of the market moving in the opposite direction. This bear market is very likely over, and the bull market has just begun. There will be pullbacks and opportunities to get in. Looking back now, the most valuable lesson from the market is: When retail investors, the general public, and a series of KOLs are all waiting for the same bear market low as the entry point, should we start to be cautious and think contrarily? In this market cycle, more and more people formed a highly unified expectation: “When BTC drops to $42K-$45K, or $38K, I’ll go all in.” But when the market actually played out, that “perfect entry point” that countless people were waiting for didn’t appear as expected. This made me re-evaluate my “consensus risk” framework. In the past, we focused more on: - Greed or fear? - Bullish or bearish? - Is market sentiment extreme? But now, I think we need to add another dimension: - What is the majority of the market waiting for? - What is the highly unified viewpoint of the majority? When a specific price is repeatedly discussed by market participants and gradually becomes the “only entry point” in everyone’s mind, it stops being just a technical level and starts becoming a form of collective consensus. And this is where trading gets interesting: When the entire market is waiting for the same price → That price is less likely to appear. This review also helped me clarify one principle for the AI trading system: Bottoms are confirmed, not predicted. Predictions can help us plan. But the true start of a trend must be proven by the market itself. This bear market is very likely a thing of the past. The new bull market has just begun, and the next thing truly worth studying is no longer “Where is the bottom?” but rather: When everyone forms a consensus again, can we realize earlier than the market that consensus itself might become a risk? Final takeaway: When the entire market consensus is waiting for the same entry point, that entry point is very unlikely to arrive!