彼得兔
彼得兔|8月 24, 2026 10:08
SNDK has rebounded all the way from 998 to 1823, and currently has fallen to around 1500 before trading. Is this rebound over? I think the probability is not yet high. In the video on August 2nd, we mentioned that SanDisk's first wave of decline since 2354.39 has ended (blue segment in Figure 1) and is about to launch a rebound of the same level. On August 16th, the video provided the first target for rebound at 1800, and the next day it reached 1800+as scheduled. Many people in the market now see SanDisk's rebound ending in 1823 and returning to a downward trend. I don't see it that way at the moment. Structurally, I see 998-1823 as the first phase of the rebound's upward movement (left side of the red box in Figure 1), while the decline starting from 1823 is temporarily seen as a correction to this upward movement (red box in Figure 1). The important observation point below is around 1400. Before the effective drop below 1400, there was a normal range of correction starting from 1823; If it falls below 1400, it will develop into a deep correction. If we want to develop into a new decline, we need more evidence. Currently, 998-1823 is seen as a rebound against the overall decline in the blue segment of Figure 1, and the level does not match. From a fundamental perspective, there is currently no apparent reversal in the storage boom. The demand for AI data centers is still supporting NAND, and SanDisk's recent financial reports and guidance remain strong. So the decline of 1823 is likely to be a rebalancing of valuation and sentiment after a rapid rise in the early stages, rather than a fundamental reversal. Since we see that there will be a callback here, there is no problem with cutting into empty orders and eating callbacks on the right side. So on the 20th, I informed everyone in the group to get on board. This week, we will focus on the support effect of the 1400 line: if it falls below 1400, short positions will continue to be held; If there are signs of the end of the adjustment around 1400, we will reduce our short positions and take protective measures, while also looking for the next opportunity to go long. Summary of SNDK's current market trend - Short term adjustment, evidence of large-scale rebound not yet over. Operation idea: First empty and then more, flexible and adaptable.
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