Phyrex|Aug 24, 2026 09:46
Before Nvidia's financial report, there was a capital withdrawal in semiconductor trading
According to BofA's data on August 20th, the total net outflow of major semiconductor ETFs in the United States over the past three weeks was $6.3 billion. From December last year to July this year, semiconductor ETFs added a total of approximately $55 billion, averaging nearly $8 billion per month. However, in the past three weeks, they have already withdrawn nearly the average inflow of the previous month.
I think this set of data needs to be combined with the timing of Nvidia's financial report. A significant portion of the $55 billion that has entered semiconductor ETFs in the past seven months has already been established, and now Nvidia is only a few days away from announcing its financial report. However, the funds have not continued to rush ahead, but have begun to actively reduce their semiconductor exposure. Willing to sell before the financial report indicates that at least some of the funds believe that continuing to bear the financial report risks is no longer as cost-effective as before.
Because the biggest problem facing semiconductors now is that both positions and expectations are too high. If Nvidia's financial report continues to exceed expectations, should the funds already holding large positions continue to buy? If the extent of exceeding expectations is not enough, or even if the next quarter's guidance only meets market expectations, the large amount of profit accumulated in the past six months will have reasons to be realized.
The outflow of 6.3 billion US dollars indicates that this redemption may have started earlier.
The outflow of ETFs is different from selling one or two stocks separately. Over the past seven months, a large amount of funds have been directly invested in the entire semiconductor sector through products such as SMH and SOXX. Now that funds have withdrawn from ETFs, it is equivalent to the same batch of funds that used to continuously provide incremental buying opportunities for semiconductors starting to operate in reverse.
So when looking at Nvidia's financial report, in addition to revenue, data centers, Blackwell, and gross profit margin, one should also pay attention to the cash flow of these semiconductor ETFs after the financial report. If the performance is good and funds continue to withdraw, then the pressure on semiconductors may no longer come from performance, but from the withdrawal of too much funds bought in the past six months.
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