Phyrex
Phyrex|8月 24, 2026 05:27
Iran begins selectively reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and the downward pressure on oil prices is growing stronger. I just wrote earlier today that Iran might not even need to wait for a complete agreement with the U.S. or fully restore the Strait of Hormuz to its pre-conflict state for global oil supply to start recovering partially. Looking at the current situation, this possibility is becoming more likely. Just today, Iran's Parliament National Security and Foreign Policy Committee passed new provisions allowing the country to charge maritime, security, insurance, fuel, and other service fees for ships from approved nations passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Although this hasn’t yet become law, it’s clear that Iran might be preparing to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz on a country-by-country basis rather than fully. Iraq has already received permission. If countries like China, India, and others that haven’t participated in actions against Iran also start resuming passage, then even if the U.S. and Iran fail to reach an agreement, oil from the Persian Gulf can still re-enter the market. This will have an increasingly noticeable impact on oil prices. Right now, one of the main reasons oil prices remain high is that the market has been factoring in how much oil might be stuck if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked long-term. But as tankers start resuming passage batch by batch, this supply gap will shrink. While Iran’s service fees will indeed increase transportation costs, these costs are negligible compared to the losses caused by the current inability to transport oil smoothly. So, even if the Strait of Hormuz isn’t officially declared fully open, as more countries gain passage approval and more tankers pass through, the war premium on oil prices will continue to decline, and the downward pressure will only grow stronger. @Gate Crypto, U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, Korean stocks, gold, CFDs, prediction markets—all in one platform for trading!
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