8.24 BitTiger Weekly

58k is increasingly likely to be the bottom this cycle—Action Brothers, I’ve been deep into playing around with quant strategies and debugging for the past two weeks, totally obsessed. Ended up skipping a weekly and monthly update—never thought the main battleground would suddenly catch fire, forcing me to reassess the original plan. Based on the data we have now, time is running out for $BTC. It’s time to shift from left-side thinking to right-side thinking. Time to adjust expectations, activate Plan B, and stand firm when taking hits. If things deviate significantly from the original plan, it’s time to review, analyze, and summarize. Key factors behind last week’s surge: 1. Treasury Secretary Besant’s U.S. debt buyback expansion (improved liquidity) 2. Trump mentioning the U.S. is considering purchasing a “significant” amount of Bitcoin (potential massive buy-side demand) 3. Epic short squeeze caused by massive short positions being liquidated (key reversal at the end of the bear market) 4. Rate hike expectations for the year dropping to nearly zero (better macro environment) Now, my personal take on this pump (DYOR) : From the divergence between CVD and OI, we can see that this rapid rise from 65k to 79k was mainly driven by spot buying, which forced shorts to close positions. This is different from the massive CME futures-led pump at the end of 2022, which quickly pushed prices out of the cost zone. This suggests that this time, it’s real, long-term spot money entering the market, not short-term leveraged funds. This makes it more likely that 58k is the bottom for this cycle.