If 2025 isn’t the cycle top, Bitcoin’s true parabolic phase might just be getting started~ Overlaying the 2017–2021 and 2021–2026 cycles gives us a more interesting explanation: 2017 ≈ 2021, when BTC hit the upper long-term regression band as the business cycle peaked; 2018 ≈ 2022, when the business cycle declined and BTC returned to the bottom range; 2019 ≈ 2025, both being mid-cycle rebounds; 2020 ≈ 2026, when prices drop back near the long-term lower band after a mid-cycle high. If this mapping holds, the 2025 peak isn’t the “big cycle top” at all—it’s just a pit stop, similar to 2019. The biggest difference? This business cycle is stretched longer than the last one, so if you’re using a fixed four-year calendar to analyze, it’s natural to feel like the market is “behind schedule.” In July, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 55.6, the highest since May 2022; in August, the U.S. Composite PMI rose to 56.0. Overall, major developed economies are seeing the fastest expansion in business activity since early 2022. If the business cycle has truly shifted from the bottom back into an expansion phase, then the most exciting part of this model is just ahead: BTC moving from the long-term lower band back toward the upper band, altcoins breaking out of years of compression, and the entire crypto market entering the final stage of risk-on euphoria. So, is it possible that many people are treating 2025 like it’s 2021, when in reality it’s more like 2019?