Many people are asking me to apologize for my dissenting view on 'the bear market bottoming out and the bull market starting.' But sorry, the market doesn’t care about emotions—it only respects underlying logic. A few short-term green candles pushing up, and suddenly an oversold rebound is mistaken for a bull market reversal? That’s classic herd mentality driven by FOMO. Looking at on-chain structures and liquidity, the real bottom hasn’t even cleared yet: 1. Miner Capitulation Isn’t Complete Every major bear market bottom has been accompanied by miner shutdown waves and bankruptcies. Only when the Hash Ribbon shows the ultimate crossover and high-cost miners have sold off completely can we say the weak hands have transferred their chips to strong institutions. Currently, miner inventories haven’t undergone a deep purge, so the foundation is far from solid. 2. Derivatives Market Hasn’t Seen 'Deep Deleveraging' A bottom that hasn’t experienced liquidation cascades and liquidity squeezes is a false bottom. The current rebound is largely driven by short covering in contracts and short-term spot buying. The leveraged long positions sitting above key resistance levels could easily turn into fatal selling pressure, triggering a secondary dip. 3. The Necessity of Time for Bottom Consolidation Bear market bottoms are never formed by sudden spikes; they’re built through months of sideways consolidation and chip rotation. Blindly calling for a bull market ignores the pace of macro liquidity tightening. Summary: Deleveraging isn’t thorough enough, miners haven’t fully capitulated, and the time needed for bottom consolidation isn’t sufficient. I’m sticking to my original judgment: the market needs a deeper shakeout, and the real bottom might not arrive until the end of this year. True hunters only strike when the market is in complete despair and dead silence. Time will reveal who’s swimming naked. Stay patient and watch closely. #BTC #Bitcoin #Cryptocurrency #MarketAnalysis