The driving logic behind this round of $BTC's surge: - The U.S. Treasury is conducting large-scale buybacks of government bonds, releasing market liquidity, weakening the dollar, and benefiting crypto risk assets. - The U.S. has signaled an end to the regulatory crackdown on the crypto industry, pushing forward crypto legislation; the SEC introduced new rules, easing policy restrictions on crypto project financing. - Short positions are being liquidated at record-breaking levels, with extremely high single-day clearing volumes. Short covering buy orders are further fueling price increases. - Capital inflows: BTC ETFs have seen net inflows for 4 consecutive days, with a single-day inflow of $606 million—the highest in three months. **Technical Analysis:** - On the weekly chart, a high-volume bullish candle has broken through the long-term downtrend line, marking a structural breakout. After a MACD bottom divergence, the golden cross below the zero line signals the start of a bullish trend. - The daily chart shows 5 consecutive bullish candles with high volume. Key resistance: $82,500—the previous consolidation platform's high point, likely the critical pivot area for this rebound. This level requires confirmation through price signals like long upper shadows or failed breakouts; don't prematurely predict the top or short. **On-chain Signals:** - Price has stabilized above the short-term holder cost basis red line, confirming the bull-bear transition on the right side. Market visible demand data for 30 days has turned green for the first time since February. The current rally is primarily driven by futures contract funding, with retail investors yet to enter the market in large numbers—they're still in the preparation phase. This suggests a potential early-stage bull market but doesn't confirm a full-fledged bull market yet. **Trading Strategy:** - Avoid chasing longs at high levels; entering during overbought conditions is not part of the trading framework. Wait for pullbacks or gap fills before considering low-entry long positions. Conditions for shorting: price reaches around $82,500 and shows reversal signals like failed breakouts or long upper shadows, or a 4-hour bearish divergence appears—only then consider shorting. Do not attempt to preemptively call the top.