小龙先生|Aug 22, 2026 13:48
《Three-in-One Trading System|BTC Risk Alert⚠️》
Hey fam, BTC has surged 25% this week and is now approaching $80,000. At this level, there are a few things worth calmly considering:
1. **$80K is the test zone.** $82,000 is the 50-week moving average and a major area for trapped positions to unwind. Historically, in 11 bear market rebounds, 10 confirmed reversals only after breaking above the 50-week moving average. Resistance is highly likely here.
2. **Whales are selling.** Over the past 3 days, whale addresses have sold a total of 7,700 BTC, worth approximately $577 million. Big players are taking advantage of the momentum to offload.
3. **Binance inflows are increasing.** Yesterday, 2,300 BTC were transferred into Binance, along with another 1,049 BTC into Coinbase Institutional. Potential selling pressure is building up.
4. **No new money, just redistribution.** While $3 billion worth of short positions were liquidated, the new entrants are mostly leveraged longs, not spot buyers. The IFP indicator has flipped bullish, meaning leverage can accelerate the rally but also amplify corrections.
5. **Wyckoff structure: Phase C.** The rebound from $57,800 to now is a natural recovery after the spring phase, but Phase C often involves a final test—a pullback for confirmation—before entering the true uptrend. Watch out for potential wide-range volatility ahead!
6. **Long-short ratio is nearly balanced.** 50.22:49.78. After old shorts were cleared, new shorts are being added at higher levels, setting up a fresh battle between bulls and bears.
7. **Leveraged longs are starting to get liquidated.** Above $78,300-$79,000, leveraged longs are piling up, and $547 million worth of long positions have already been liquidated. If BTC drops below $77,000, the likelihood of a cascading sell-off increases.
8. **Time window is tightening.** Next week’s PCE data (August 26) and the Jackson Hole symposium (August 28) are approaching, which will test the macro liquidity narrative. There’s not much time left in this window.
**Summary:** A correction near $80K is highly likely. If you’re holding longs, set trailing stops below $77,000. If you’re feeling FOMO, wait for a pullback confirmation before jumping in. For shorts, consider entering only if resistance signals appear near $80K.
The overall direction is still upward, but it’s time to start paying attention to defensive strategies.
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