This wave of BTC rise, I'm starting to feel 'really different'. Many people believe that: These past few days have just been an epic short squeeze, and once the short positions have burst, they will fall back But upon closer examination of the data, you will discover a crucial anomaly: BTC has skyrocketed and exploded to record levels, but the open interest (OI) of contracts has been continuously decreasing. What does this represent? This market trend may not have been driven by leveraged bulls. If there are a large number of contracts with long positions entering the market: Newly opened multiple orders → OI increases → funding rates rise → price increases → short positions are liquidated. Normally, we should see a significant increase in OI. But this time it's just the opposite: Prices have skyrocketed, but OI has been decreasing almost from start to finish. The reason is simple. Short stop loss and liquidation essentially require: Buy and close positions. So: Price ↑ Short positions liquidated ↑ Buy and close positions ↑ OI ↓ That is to say, this part of the buying order is only for: Liquidate the past, not bet on the future The problem also arises here. The fuel for short selling market is limited. All the short positions have exploded, and the fuel has been burned out. If BTC is simply pushed up by short selling this time, The most common trend in theory should be: Violent uptrend → all short positions explode → buying disappears → rapid decline. Finally, leave behind a huge one: The upper shadow line. But not this time. After BTC was violently pulled up—— The price has actually stopped. This is very important. Because this means: After the wave of liquidation recedes, there is another batch of funds taking over the market. Where did this batch of funds come from? The answer is likely to be: spot And there is also a more critical causal issue. Why do bears sell out? Because the price first rose to their strong flat line. So what's really worth asking is: Who stepped on the first accelerator If it's not a long position in the contract, then it depends on the spot price. The result was really abnormal. From August 19th to August 20th, the relative trading volume SRV of spot goods on the exchange reached 2.94 at one point. The current level of transaction activity is close to: Three times the average over the past 30 days. Looking back at the past two years, Similar SRV amplification has also occurred on 2/5 and 6/5, but at that time, there was an increase in volume during the decline, which was a panic turnover. Apart from this The high SRV that can be compared to this in history, Many actually appear during bull markets. For example, on November 6, 2024, SRV experienced a surge, Everyone knows what happened afterwards: BTC enters a bull market with a main uptrend. So this time and this year: Rebound to $96K in January Rebound to $82K in May The biggest difference may be here. The rebound ahead is more like: Leveraged funds drive. And this time, we saw for the first time: Real spot demand. That's also why I'm starting to feel: This rebound has a really different 'taste'. But be careful—— I'm not telling you: The bear market is over, now let's go straight ahead These data are not sufficient to confirm a trend reversal alone. It can only tell us: For the first time since the bear market, there have been some noteworthy changes. There is a demand for spot goods. Price surpasses STH-RP. The seller depletion index has entered an extreme region. As more and more signals that originally did not exist, When pointing in one direction at the same time, you can no longer rely on the original script to blindly follow the market. The market never comes out of predictions. The market trend is driven by individual candlesticks, and the evidence is also accumulated one by one. On the day when all evidence confirms the bull market, You will indeed have a higher level of 'certainty'. But the cost may be—— The price of BTC is no longer at its current level.