小龙先生|Aug 22, 2026 13:07
《Three-in-One Trading System|BTC Evening Strategy Update》
---BTC has reached a resistance level. Will it drop for a correction next?
BTC surged from $62,800 to nearly $80,000, gaining 25% in a week, with shorts liquidated for approximately $4 billion. Now consolidating around $77,300, there are several on-chain data changes happening in the short term—let me sync them with you.
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### 1. On-chain data: Whales are selling, leverage is stepping in
Whale sell-offs are underway. Lookonchain monitoring shows that over the past 3 days, a mysterious whale address has cumulatively sold 7,700 BTC, worth approximately $577 million. The latest transaction involved 2,700 BTC, worth about $211.8 million. This isn’t retail behavior—it’s big money cashing out during the rally.
Binance inflows are increasing. Yesterday, 2,300 BTC were transferred from an anonymous wallet to Binance, worth about $180 million. Meanwhile, another 1,049 BTC were transferred from Binance to Coinbase Institutional, worth approximately $81.5 million.
The directions differ: Binance leans more toward retail/trading platforms, while Coinbase Institutional caters to institutions.
**IFP indicator flips bullish.** CryptoQuant analysts noted that Bitcoin’s Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) is showing bullish signals, indicating that BTC inflows to derivative exchanges are increasing, and leveraged funds are becoming active again.
Sell orders on the order book are starting to pile up, while ETF institutional net inflows have dropped to around $300 million.
This explains one phenomenon: after shorts were liquidated in the short term, the new entrants are leveraged longs, not spot demand.
**Strategy is profitable.** Strategy currently holds 840,447 BTC at an average cost of $75,385. With BTC near $77,430, there’s approximately $1.72 billion in unrealized profit. If any sell signals are triggered at this level, it could become a source of selling pressure.
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### 2. Market data
Currently at $77,300, with a 24-hour range of $76,500-$78,828. $77,000 is the first support level—if broken, watch for $76,000. On the upside, $78,800-$79,500 is the short-term resistance zone.
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### 3. Core insights from Xiaolong
The most aggressive short squeeze phase is over. Whales have sold a total of 7,700 BTC over the past 3 days, while new funds entering the market are primarily leveraged, not spot.
Short-term direction leans toward high-level consolidation. $77,000 is the key defense level. I predict prices are likely to drop for a correction, with the possibility of further wide fluctuations. Even in the early stages of a bull market, there will be repeated consolidation to build momentum.
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### Strategy:
1. If you’re holding longs, set a trailing stop below $77,000. Target $78,800-$79,500 on the upside.
2. If you missed the rally, wait for a pullback to $76,000 for confirmation before entering.
3. Whales haven’t finished selling—manage your position size if you’re chasing longs.
Don’t chase the highs—wait for the dip.
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