小龙先生|Aug 22, 2026 12:59
《Three-in-One Trading System|BTC Evening Strategy Update》
---BTC has reached a resistance level. Will it drop for a correction next?
BTC surged from $62,800 to nearly $80,000, gaining 25% in a week, with shorts liquidated for approximately $4 billion. It's now consolidating around $77,300, and there are several on-chain data changes happening in the short term. Let me sync them with you:
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### 1. On-chain data: Whales are selling, leverage is stepping in
Whale sell-offs are underway. Lookonchain monitoring shows that over the past 3 days, a mysterious whale address has sold a total of 7,700 BTC, worth approximately $577 million. The latest transaction involved 2,700 BTC, worth about $211.8 million. This isn’t retail behavior—it’s big money cashing out during the rally.
Binance inflows are increasing. Yesterday, 2,300 BTC were transferred from an anonymous wallet to Binance, worth about $180 million. Meanwhile, another 1,049 BTC were transferred from Binance to Coinbase Institutional, worth approximately $81.5 million.
The directions differ: Binance tends to cater more to retail/trading platforms, while Coinbase Institutional leans toward institutional investors.
**IFP indicator flips bullish.** CryptoQuant analysts pointed out that Bitcoin’s Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) is showing bullish signals, indicating that BTC inflows to derivative exchanges are increasing, and leveraged funds are becoming active again.
Sell orders on the order book are starting to pile up, while ETF institutional net inflows have dropped to around $350 million.
This explains one phenomenon: after shorts were liquidated in the short term, the new entrants are leveraged longs, not spot demand.
**Strategy is in profit.** Strategy holds 840,447 BTC with an average cost of $75,385. At the current price of around $77,430, there’s approximately $1.72 billion in unrealized profit. If any sell signals are triggered at this level, it could become a potential source of selling pressure.
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### 2. Market data
Currently at $77,300, with a 24-hour range of $76,500-$78,828. $77,000 is the first support level; if it breaks, look for $76,000. On the upside, $78,800-$79,500 is the short-term resistance zone.
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### 3. Core judgment by Xiaolong
The most aggressive short squeeze phase is over. Whales have sold a total of 7,700 BTC over the past 3 days, while new funds entering the market are mostly leveraged positions, not spot purchases.
Short-term direction leans toward high-level consolidation. The $77,000 level is a key defense point. I predict that prices are likely to drop for a correction in the near future, with the possibility of further wide-range fluctuations. Even in the early stages of a bull market, there will be repeated consolidation and accumulation.
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### Strategy:
(1) If you’re holding longs, set a trailing stop below $77,000 and aim for $78,800-$79,500 on the upside.
(2) If you missed out, wait for a pullback to $76,000 for confirmation before taking action.
(3) Whales are still selling, so manage your position size carefully if you’re chasing longs.
Don’t chase the highs—wait for the dip.
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