qinbafrank|Aug 22, 2026 12:02
The new normal and supply side reform in the field of encryption, April 24 here: https://((x.com))/qinbank/status/1784391423992979826? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A proposed a concept of the "new normal of the cryptocurrency market": the more mature the cryptocurrency market, the stronger its effectiveness. The manifestation of effectiveness is that the most growth oriented (narrative) and deterministic targets must attract the most attention and funding. The Matthew effect in the capital market is very obvious, and in the future, the currency market will also reflect this aspect very thoroughly, so the differentiation will become more and more serious, and most of them will become unknown. Looking back now, is that really the case.
As for why there is extreme differentiation phenomenon? In 24 years, this tweet about the cognition and iteration of shanzhai is https://((x.com))/qinba frank/status/1816383628235989447? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A has discussed the underlying logic in detail, which can be simply put as: weak innovation, no value creation, and the project party only has power without obligation, with extremely high moral hazard.
Why has the US stock market lasted for a century? The core is the continuous supply of the world's highest quality assets. Without high-quality assets, no matter how much capital comes in, it will eventually become a game of chicken feathers. The core issue of the past two multi currency markets was the lack of supply of investment assets.
The token financing exemption and safe harbor principle "Regulation Crypto Assets" announced by the SEC on August 19th showed me the shadow of the "supply reform" of cryptocurrency assets
1. Network Capital Market
The proposal clearly provides a dedicated issuance pathway for "covered investment contracts" (investment contracts attached to non securities encrypted assets) (with a maximum start-up exemption of $5 million/4 years and a maximum financing exemption of $75 million/year), accompanied by principled disclosure and conditional safe harbor. Safe Harbor allows issuers to detach tokens from investment contract attributes by submitting Form TR or other means after completing or permanently ceasing their promised 'key management efforts'.
This is opening up a channel for financing the "network itself" outside the traditional corporate equity capital market. Enterprises with network effects, external participants, and digital resource coordination needs (AI computing power/data market DePIN、 Logistics, gaming, SaaS, etc. will indeed re evaluate whether to add a layer of token economy - because the compliance cost has decreased, the path is clear, and meeting the standards can directly raise funds from American investors, which is still very attractive.
2. Supply side reform: More tokens with business foundations, squeezing the space for air coins
In the past, many air coins relied on "vague enforcement after the fact+offshore coin issuance+no disclosure" to survive. The current compliant public fundraising path will attract projects with real business scenarios and the ability to fulfill network construction commitments to consider token economy
If Air Coin wants to raise funds publicly in the United States, it either cannot meet the conditions or faces legal responsibility if it discloses fraud. In the long run, an increase in high-quality supply will dilute the attractiveness of pure speculative tokens, which is a typical supply side optimization.
3. The risk of running away and not taking action has decreased, and regulation has forced the team to be more proactive
The principle of financing exemption and safe harbor does not mean that the project is completely self indulgent. From another perspective, this actually further raises the entry threshold: requiring narrative disclosure, (large) financial statements, and continuous reporting, anti fraud rules always apply.
1) Disclosure and continuous reporting significantly increase transparency, and the cost of running away increases (both investors and the SEC are more likely to be held accountable);
2) The safe harbor conditions are clearly bound to 'complete or permanently suspend key commitments'. If the team wants the token to be released from securities regulation as soon as possible and achieve more free circulation, it must actually deliver network construction, rather than lying flat after fundraising.
3) Compared to the past model of "issuing coins first, then enforcing the law", now there is a "rule path in advance+clear exit mechanism afterwards", and the space for passive inaction has been compressed.
Of course, AirCoin will not disappear completely immediately, and some may still continue to follow offshore or grey paths, but the attractiveness of the US market as a mainstream capital pool will significantly tilt towards compliant and high-quality projects. Compliant ICO projects that comply with SEC regulations will attract the most funds and attention in the global cryptocurrency industry in the future, and ultimately we may see a scenario of 'bad coins driving out good coins'.
The proposal is still in the stage of soliciting opinions (comments deadline is around October 20, 2026), and the final rules may be adjusted. And compliance does not equate to success. Projects with sufficient disclosure may also be poorly executed or poorly designed for token economy. But at least compliance and transparency are good trends and signs for investors.
From "suppressing unregistered coin issuance" to "designing specialized channels+using lifecycle rules to force delivery". This is indeed expected to drive the evolution of encrypted tokens from the dominance of "air coins" to the direction of "creating more real network value".
So this is also from here two days ago: https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/20902277711340538? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A is the starting point for compliance with ICO2.0, on chain capital formation, and the lifecycle system of digital asset securities.
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