Brothers, on the surface, the market seems to be trading AI, $BTC, and U.S. Treasury yields, but there’s another thread behind the scenes that we can’t ignore: The U.S. midterm elections. On November 3, 2026, the U.S. will hold elections for all House seats and part of the Senate. Right now, the Republican Party has a 'trifecta'—control of the White House, the House, and the Senate. This makes policy implementation efficient, but it also means fiscal expansion, tax cuts, and bond issuance pressures are more easily amplified by the market. Recently, long-term U.S. Treasury yields have been stubbornly high. The 30-year Treasury yield is still above 5%. The market isn’t just worried about daily fluctuations but whether the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt supply will spiral further out of control. That’s why Citi’s core framework is so interesting: If a divided government emerges after the midterm elections, it might actually be good for the bond market. The reason is simple. When government power is divided, large-scale fiscal spending becomes harder to push through, reducing expectations of Treasury supply. The market would then reprice fiscal pressures. Bond prices might rebound, and yields could drop. This is also why prediction markets are starting to pay attention to the probability of Democrats winning both chambers or at least taking the House. But this doesn’t mean the market will immediately rally once the results are out. The 50 trading days before the election are usually when policy uncertainty is at its peak, and stocks, credit, and rates markets tend to face pressure. In the 30 trading days before the election, if the worst-case scenario is priced in, the market might see a relief rally. Once the results are finalized, the focus will shift to how the election outcome impacts fiscal policy, the debt ceiling, the Fed’s rate path, and Treasury supply. For the current market, the key isn’t guessing who will win. The key is watching how capital positions itself in advance: Will Treasury yields fall? Can tech stocks take the lead again? Will cyclical stocks and risk assets like $BTC continue to gain momentum? In the short term, the market will still be driven by rates and sentiment. But in the medium term, the U.S. political landscape could become a critical variable for the next round of asset pricing.