Murphy
Murphy|Aug 22, 2026 04:01
Oh my gosh, it's exactly the same! Check out the chart: 1. Both failed twice to break the green line; 2. Both broke out of the previous consolidation, with the price below the red line; 3. Both had a straight surge, breaking through three resistance lines in a row; 4. The distance between the green line and red line before the breakout is the same, with a ratio of 1.08-1.09. So... If the price can hold up next, it won’t be long before the red line crosses above the blue and green lines. That’s a right-side signal, and it would basically confirm — the bear market is over! But if the red line fails to cross above the green line, then it’s just another bear market rally, similar to what happened in May this year. Looking at other data, my personal feeling is: We’re leaning toward the former scenario right now. While it’s not 100% confirmed, there are signs. The next period will be super, super critical. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes! ------------------------------------------------ Here’s a quote from an article I wrote on July 25 about whether to "buy the dip during the left side of the bear market cycle or wait for the right side." In the article, I mentioned that if you’re waiting for a right-side signal, in this cycle, it might only appear when the price hits $76,000. But if BTC reaches $76k, would you dare to buy? Would you still want to buy? And now BTC is already at $78k. That soul-searching question from back then is now staring all the friends who didn’t build positions on the left side right in the face. Buy! ... What if it pulls back again? Don’t buy! ... What if the trend takes off? Timing is everything, fate is everything...
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