Many traders, when trading, don’t actually realize what they’re gambling on. Here’s an example from a different perspective, and it’ll make sense: BTC’s downtrend lasted over 300 days, followed by a consolidation near the lows for over 100 days. Finally, it broke through the threshold with a massive surge, but it only lasted 1-2 days— not even half a weekly candle completed. Yet, many people immediately dive into analyzing the absolute price levels, even flipping their large positions from long to short on a daily timeframe. ---- So, are they betting on the first weekly candle having a long upper shadow? Do they even realize that’s what they’re betting on? The simplest observation: even the weakest rebounds before this had at least a few weekly candles. Time, time, time. The time dimension is far more important than absolute price levels. Over the past two years, many people have learned that a proper BTC bull trend can last for around 100 days. Isn’t it true that every time we actually approach the 100-day mark, people look back at their frantic trading during the first few days and feel like they were acting foolishly? Recently, there’s been a similar 300-day downtrend, like Xiaomi in the Hong Kong stock market. Its upward trend in July lasted for an entire month.