Hupzy (Spot On Chain)|8月 21, 2026 22:10
Galaxy Research backtested Bitcoin's six completed bear cycles since 2011 and found the 50-week MA reclaim is the reliable cycle-bottom signal — only 2 failures out of 13 reclaims, versus a 59% failure rate for the 50-day MA.
𝗛𝘂𝗽𝘇𝘆 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲: The $𝟴𝟮,𝟰𝟳𝟬 50w MA is the level to watch on weekly closes. An 𝟴𝟱% historical success rate (11 of 13) gives traders a data-driven framework: reclaim supports a constructive long bias, rejection echoes the 50d MA's failure pattern. BTC trades around $77,500 — up 32.4% off the June 30 low but still ~6% below the confirmation threshold. The weekly close is the binding event; intraday spikes above don't count.
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