灯塔说|8月 21, 2026 15:46
The past two days' recap on the market rally (key point in the last sentence):
If we attribute this 'bull run' to the U.S. government's fiscal intervention to curb the rise in long-term bond yields, improve long-term bond liquidity, and lower financing costs, then the focus next week should be on the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting and the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh. These events will redefine how the market prices inflation, interest rates, and fiscal interventions.
This will directly impact whether the rally continues or if there’s a short squeeze followed by another long squeeze.
After this afternoon's rapid surge, we saw the first high-level turnover during the past two days of gains. It’s expected that the market will adjust at high levels over the weekend while waiting for next week’s signals.
If you don’t understand next week’s fundamental signals, just keep an eye on the U.S. dollar. Although this rally was aimed at intervening in long-term bonds, the dollar’s decline is a directly correlated reaction. If next week’s signals lead to a dollar rally, $BTC and gold will likely pull back and adjust. Conversely, if Warsh continues to endorse or align with the Treasury’s intervention, $BTC and gold will likely continue to rise.
From a technical perspective, we’re currently in a 4-hour uptrend. Over the weekend, the best strategy is to find a safe pullback point to go long and hold positions while waiting for next week’s signals. However, both $BTC and gold have already tapped into daily-level high liquidity zones. For $BTC, strictly monitor whether it can hold above 78K, and for gold, watch whether the daily candle closes solidly above 4600.
The safest pullback levels to go long are around 73K-74K for $BTC and 4480 and 4380 for gold.
Summary: The previous repeated reminders to buy the dip have now paid off with a violent rally. Moving forward, there’s no need to focus heavily on going long. Instead, pay attention to when the rally ends or wait for a stronger support level to continue the upward trend.
#bitcoin #native
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