Let’s talk about why BTC has been surging recently. This time, the BTC rally has a key catalyst: U.S. Treasury bonds. But it’s not as simple as “Treasury bonds drop → BTC rises.” The real logic is: The U.S. Treasury starts actively buying back long-term bonds → Expectations for long-term Treasury yields to decline → Weaker USD → Marginal easing of financial conditions → Non-sovereign assets like BTC and gold get repriced. This logic has already been directly traded by the market over the past few days. On August 19, the U.S. Treasury announced it would increase the buyback size of long-term Treasury bonds from about $2 billion per session to $4 billion. After the news broke, long-term Treasury yields dropped by about 10 basis points, the USD weakened, and BTC and gold rose simultaneously. This sudden increase in long-term bond buybacks by the Treasury is essentially sending a signal to the market: The U.S. government doesn’t want long-term interest rates to spiral out of control. So the market started trading on the idea of “long-term rates peaking/improved financial conditions.” What’s even more important: the USD is also falling. This, in my opinion, is the most critical factor behind this BTC rally. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has now dropped to around 98.7, hitting a three-month low. So we’re seeing a very classic combination right now: Long-term Treasury yields ↓ + DXY ↓ + BTC ↑ + Gold ↑ This is much more significant than BTC simply rising on its own. Because it shows the market isn’t just trading a typical crypto narrative, but rather: The declining real attractiveness of USD assets. That’s why both gold and BTC are strengthening. Short-term: Very bullish for BTC. Long-term: It’s too early to interpret this as “the Fed is starting to ease.” If the 10-year Treasury yield continues to drop below 4.7%, BTC could rise further.