This breakthrough cannot be explained by a weak rebound, but it is not yet time to confirm a bull market reversal. Bitcoin: After sideways trading around 63000, native broke through the downward trend line of 69K-70K with increasing volume and peaked above 75700. This position is not only a technical breakthrough, but also a bearish stop loss zone, early platform, and trend line resonance level, so the upward speed is very fast. OKX The core of the rise is not a single positive, but a combination of macro, policy, funding, and liquidation factors. The decline in US bond yields and the weakening of the US dollar have eased the pressure on risky assets; The expectation of encrypted regulation is heating up, improving market pricing; After the resumption of spot funds, short positions were concentrated and replenished, pushing the market to a daily level bullish trend. But from the perspective of trading structure, this wave is not a pure spot slow bull. The BTC funding rate has clearly turned positive, and contract holdings have rebounded, indicating that leveraged funds are also chasing after it. The advantage is that the trend elasticity is stronger, but the disadvantage is that there is a high probability of a retracement and cleaning in the future, and it is unlikely to pull straight to a new high. In history, strong rebounds in bear markets often break through the downtrend line first, then rush to Fibonacci 38.2% or be blocked in the early chip intensive area. Calculated from the high point of 126000 to the low point of 58000, the rebound level near 74000 is 23.6%, the rebound level near 84000 is 38.2%, and the rebound level near 92000 is 50%. 73500-74000 is the short-term strong weak line 70000 to 72000 is the breakthrough retracement zone 78000-80000 is the first pressure 82000-84000 is the most critical top zone for this round of rebound 88000-92000 requires continuous inflow of ETFs and continued coordination with US stocks My judgment: This round of uptrend has already shaken off the weakness, and it is likely to be the first to oscillate and rise. If it continues to diverge at higher levels, as long as it cannot break through 70000, there is still a chance for the rebound to continue until the end of August to early September, with a maximum target of 78000-84000. But if BTC falls back below 70000 and cannot recover, this breakthrough will be defined as a fake breakthrough, with a re examination of 65000, or even 60000-62000 below. The current strategy is to go long but not chase high, and wait for confirmation from the retracement. Don't rush to buy short or blindly chase long. Stay patient and observe. The rebound pace is fast, and wait for confirmation of the rebound before deciding how the market will change in the future!