Bitcoin BTC has just surpassed 75000 and has risen over 10K in less than 2 days. The screen is filled with people shouting 'real bull' and 'bears are being squeezed out'. But if you only treat it as a forced flight, you will miss the real signal. Squeezing is just a trigger, not ammunition. The real ammunition is liquidity in changing owners: On the first level, macro level. The yield on the 30Y US Treasury bond surged to 5.34%, the highest since 2007, and the Treasury Department was forced to increase its long-term bond buybacks from $4 billion to $10-30 billion per month, according to Connors. The water released from the long end always needs to find a place - BTC is the sponge most sensitive to liquidity. Second floor, funding structure. Spot ETFs traded $5.3 billion in a single day, with BlackRock alone accounting for 80%. This is not a retail FOMO, it is an institution building a warehouse using IBIT. Even Arthur Hayes said that in a relaxed environment, if you want to open up, just buy spot ETFs directly. Three levels, market structure. The $3.1 billion short position has been liquidated, keeping the price on hold, but a 17% weekly increase is no longer something that can be explained by a bearish candlestick - the previously flattened floating profit is turning into a new bullish bottom position. But don't rush to fill the warehouse. The other side of the same set of liquidity narrative is the bill: the non-performing rate of private credit BDC is 2.8%, the highest since 2017, Dudley is staring at CAPE 41, Buffett's indicator is 240%, shouting foam, and gold has simultaneously hit an 11 week high. Funds rush into BTC and gold at the same time - this is not purely a risk preference, but a collective distrust of the purchasing power of fiat currencies. So first, distinguish what you are trading: if this is a 'forced rebound', you should reduce your position by $75K; If this is an early pricing for monetizing fiscal deficits, $75K is just a new floor. My judgment leans towards the latter - it is never a coincidence that BTC and gold rise together when the central bank and the Ministry of Finance are struggling with long-term yields.