Three dimensional integrated trading system | BTC morning analysis and deduction ——Where are the short-term rebound highs and retracement prices? What is the trading strategy? Hey guys, BTC pulled nearly 12000 points in three days, from 62800 to 74800 directly. This wave is indeed strong, but above 74800 is a strong resistance zone. Let's talk this morning about where the short-term rebound high point of Bitcoin BTC is and how we can proceed with subsequent operations. 1、 Disk positioning: What is the position of 74800? The core driving logic of this rebound is the resonance of the three factors of "short squeeze+US bond repurchase+regulatory benefits", rather than the large-scale entry of incremental funds. In the past 24 hours, the total online liquidation exceeded 3.3 billion US dollars, with short positions liquidated by approximately 3 billion US dollars. The bear stampede is the biggest driving force behind this rally, but this force is one-time. After the bears burst, passive buying will significantly weaken. Because in the short term, the volume and price of the four hour level have deviated, and subsequent adjustments are inevitable. And the current price of 74800 is not a random increase. 73227 is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, 74500-75800 is the weekly downtrend line position, and it is also the upper edge of the historical chip concentration zone in March 2024. The triple pressure is stacked together, which is why I estimate that the short-term high is likely to be around 74500-75000, with an extreme value of 75800. 2、 Quantity and capital: Doing multiple emotions is overheating! The funding rate has reached its highest level in 20 months, with the last similar level occurring in January 2025 when BTC formed a temporary peak around $102000. The long short ratio of individual investors soared to 2.22, with more than 2 long positions against 1 short position, but the long short ratio of whales was only 1.47. Retail investors are crazily chasing, while large funds are calmly watching. Short term holders transferred 43000 BTC to the exchange in a single day, marking the largest daily inflow in 2026. The release of selling pressure is ongoing. These signals combined indicate short-term market sentiment overheating. The sound of a bull market coming is incessant. Has the bull market really returned this time? I don't think so. 3、 Prediction of callback position: Three observation areas. If the high point of this rebound is around 74500-75000, there are three key positions for subsequent pullbacks: First stop: 71500-72000 (shallow callback) The support conversion after the breakthrough of 72000 in the early stage, and the strong consolidation of the range. If the volume stabilizes, the structure is complete. Second stop: 7000-71000 (moderate callback) The upper edge of the chip intensive area, where a large amount of funds enter, is the most likely target level for this wave of correction. Third stop: 68000-69000 (deep callback) Fibonacci level normal retracement, extreme retracement level. If it falls below this point, the breakthrough logic may be falsified. I personally tend to fall within the range of 70000 to 71000, and scaling back and stabilizing is the healthiest scenario. 4、 Strategy reference At position 74800, the upward space is limited (74800-75000), while the downward space is noticeably larger. There are low and long orders: gradually reduce positions around 74500-75000, and move the stop loss to 71500. Step out: Wait for confirmation of a retracement of 7000-71000 before taking action. Stop loss should be uniformly placed below 68000, and a stable decrease in volume is a signal. Want to go short: If there is a long upper shadow or a solid bearish line near 74500, it is confirmed that it is blocked. You can try to go short with a light position, stop loss at 75500, and target 71000-72000. My core viewpoint This wave from 62800 to 74800 is driven by three major engines: the expansion of US bond repurchases to release liquidity, the largest bear squeeze in history (3.3 billion liquidation), and favorable White House regulation. But 74500-75800 is the test room for the weekly downward trend line. It is not cost-effective to chase after the profit and loss ratio of 74800, and the short-term high point is likely to be between 74500-75000, with an extreme value of 75800. Stepping back between 70000 and 71000 is the most likely price range. If the direction is right and the rhythm is wrong, we will still lose money.