Chen Guilin's Trading Notes: August 21, 2026 Bitcoin $BTC: 1. Mid-to-long-term perspective: 1. From the day Bitcoin started rebounding, I made a subjective prediction: the primary goal of this rebound (or reversal) is for Bitcoin to break through the daily MA200 moving average. This has now been achieved. This signifies that Bitcoin has accomplished something it hasn’t done throughout the entire bear market since the drop from $126. While this doesn’t mean it won’t drop further, it does indicate that we’re nearing the end of the bear market. 2. Yesterday, I mentioned that after Bitcoin broke through the daily MA200, there’s still about 10% room for further upside. That’s almost been achieved now. 3. From the perspective of moving averages, the daily candlestick has now broken through all moving averages, but the moving averages haven’t fully formed a bullish alignment yet. This means there’s still a significant chance of the candlestick crossing below the moving averages again (forming a large-scale consolidation). However, the purpose of such a move would be to shake out weak hands. See Figure 1 for reference. The daily candlestick oscillating around the moving averages would represent the final shakeout phase of the bear market. 2. Short-term perspective: 1. To cut to the chase: there’s not much room for action right now. Shorting? There’s no top pattern even on the 1-hour chart. Going long? It’s tough to go against human nature and enter after such a big rally, especially when it’s overbought. There will likely be a pullback or sideways consolidation, but it’s highly probable that this will only happen after most people’s patience has been exhausted. 2. Looking at the naked candlestick chart (Figure 2), above 75,000 we might enter a historical resistance zone. Let’s see how it plays out. After all, Ethereum claims it doesn’t care about resistance—if it keeps going up, it might even break the high of the last rebound. 3. Figures 3 and 4 are charts I shared earlier in the community when discussing the market. Those who get it will understand immediately. Looking back at them now, I can’t help but call myself a genius.