Chen Guilin's Trading Notes: August 21, 2026 Bitcoin $BTC: 1. Mid-to-long-term perspective: 1. From the day Bitcoin started rebounding, I made a subjective prediction: the primary goal of this rebound (or reversal) is for Bitcoin to break through the daily MA200 moving average. This has now been achieved. This signifies that Bitcoin has accomplished something it hasn’t done throughout the entire bear market since the drop from 126. It doesn’t mean there won’t be further declines, but it does indicate we’re nearing the end of the bear market. 2. Yesterday, I mentioned that after Bitcoin broke through the daily MA200, there’s still about 10% room for upward movement. It’s almost there now. 3. From the perspective of moving averages, the daily candles have now broken through all moving averages, but the moving averages haven’t fully formed a bullish alignment yet. This means there’s still a significant chance of the candles dipping below the moving averages in the future (forming a large-scale consolidation). However, the purpose of such moves would be to shake out weak hands. See Figure 1 for reference. Daily candles interweaving with moving averages—this is the final shakeout of the bear market. 2. Short-term perspective: 1. To summarize: there’s currently no room for operation. Shorting? The 1-hour chart hasn’t shown any top formation. Going long? It’s hard to go against human nature and enter after such a significant rally and overbought conditions. There will likely be opportunities for pullbacks or sideways movement, but chances are these will only come after most people’s patience has been exhausted. 2. Looking at naked candles (Figure 2), above 75,000 we might enter a historical resistance zone. Let’s see how it plays out. After all, ETH claims it doesn’t care about resistance—if it keeps rallying, it might even break the high point of the last rebound. 3. Figures 3 and 4 are charts I previously shared in the community while discussing the market. Those who get it will understand immediately. Looking back now, I can’t help but call myself a genius.