Art of Speculation|Aug 19, 2026 23:32
Today's technical analysis
Today, the market continues yesterday's correction. As long as it does not effectively fall below the daily EMA 20, I still consider this as a normal reset in the upward trend. The overall idea is to wait for a retracement and find opportunities to go long.
Compared to yesterday, several key supports have already been tested, so there is no need to rush to guess the bottom on the left side here. Patiently wait for the price to enter the support zone, and then see if there is a right side stabilization signal of reversing scroll+small-scale structure reversal.
SPY
SPY has temporarily stopped falling after the key support of 767 mentioned earlier today, with a slight rebound during the day, but it cannot be confirmed that this round of adjustment has ended yet.
The daily chart did not show a particularly strong bullish reversal candle, and the 1-hour level is still below EMA 20. Structurally, it is still Lower High+Lower Low, so the most important thing now is to wait for confirmation on the right side.
Next, let's focus on two positions:
772.5: Today's intraday high and resistance near the 1-hour EMA 20. After breaking through here again, the 1-hour level will begin to form Higher High, which can serve as the first confirmation signal of short-term bottom reversal. Let's continue to look at 776 above.
767.81: The most important defensive position in the short term. If 767 is clearly lost again, let's continue to look at the entire support area of EMA21+756-760 on the daily chart.
QQQ
The trend of QQQ today is weaker than SPY, and the daily chart has closed with a weak bearish candlestick that swallowed up the previous day's trend. It has now begun to directly test the daily EMA 20.
This is the most important observation position for the next step.
If I can hold onto the daily EMA 20 tomorrow and receive a clear bullish reversal candlestick here, while standing back at EMA 20 within an hour, I would see it as a good opportunity to go long on the right side with a good profit to loss ratio.
If the daily EMA 20 is effectively lost, then this round of adjustment is likely not over yet. We need to guard against a deeper pullback and focus on the gap near 701.59 in the next level.
individual stock
NVDA
NVDA is only about 7 days away from the financial report, so I will not open new Swing positions here for the time being.
Technically, the next focus will be on the daily EMA 20 near 215 and the gap 213.
If there is a continued pullback to this point before the financial report, and there is a clear bottom reversal candlestick such as Hammer, you can pay attention to short-term market downturns.
TSLA
TSLA is a relatively strong player in the market today, rising 3% against the trend and successfully holding onto the daily EMA 20, while also recovering from the previous 1-hour level of false decline. This structure is a clear Bear Trap.
The 1-hour structure has been repaired, and the short-term target above is the gap of 372.90. But now this position allows me to directly chase after more, and the profit and loss ratio is not very good. So for TSLA, I will remain neutral for now. If there is a position, I can continue to look at 372.9 to fill the gap. If there is no position, I will not chase the rise or short.
AMD
AMD continued to plummet by more than 3% today, and it is still a clearly weak structure, with no real signal of a halt to the decline yet.
First, look at 463 in the short term. This is currently an important support, and at the same time, the entire form also needs to start preventing the possibility of the formation of large-scale head, shoulder, and top structures.
If 463 is clearly breached, the space below will further open up, and the next level may even directly search for support at the 400 integer level, or even support at 365.
PLTR
PLTR currently still belongs to a high-level oscillation structure. Support formed near EMA 10 170 yesterday.
The 1-hour level continues to wrap around EMA 20, and the short-term short signal that appeared before was ultimately proven to be a Bear Trap. The key defensive position that currently needs attention is 174.5.
As long as it is not effectively breached here, it is still a high-level consolidation after the rapid rise earlier.
If you can switch time and space through sideways trading or a small pullback later, wait for a more comfortable low position.
MU
MU is currently approaching the daily EMA 20, and this is a very important support test going forward.
However, currently the daily chart is still a bearish candlestick and is still below EMA 20 for one hour, so we haven't seen any confirmation of the bottom yet.
Next are two scripts:
Bull Case:
The daily EMA 20 has been successfully held and a clear bullish reversal candle has been collected here. At the same time, the low-level structure has become stronger again. Therefore, MU has the opportunity to challenge 1000 again and even impact ATH again.
Bear Case:
If the daily EMA 20 is clearly lost, this round of adjustment may further expand, and in extreme cases, it can be seen around 780 and 800
However, from a larger weekly structure perspective, even if it eventually retraces to the weekly EMA 20 moving average, it is still a normal and healthy adjustment within the upward trend, and the long-term trend has not been disrupted.
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