A war that was originally expected to last for several days or even less than a month is gradually approaching six months. The current risk facing the market is that Iran may delay hopes of reaching an agreement until the end of US President Trump's term. The following are the possible impacts of this scenario: 1 The market has abandoned the expectation of a quick victory, and financial markets are no longer betting that the war will end soon, but have not fully taken into account the scenario that may continue until the end of Trump's term (January 2029). The advisor to the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament stated this week that Trump will not reach an agreement with Iran, and Iran will "accompany" him, but will not reach a real agreement before Trump's term ends. 2. The market is forced to reprice. The market's recognition that the war may continue until January 2029 is not necessarily negative, and the market, businesses, and households will have more time to adjust their expectations and actions as a result. Adapting to the continuous supply interruption of petroleum and refined oil is crucial, and the market curve of petroleum and products will adjust accordingly to reflect higher and longer prices. 3. Gulf countries will be forced to develop alternative solutions. Gulf countries will have time to re plan the entry of energy products into the global market. This may include: 1) attempting to evade Iran's military power in the Strait of Hormuz; 2) Accelerate the plan to bypass the strait; And/or 3) reaching an agreement with Iran to exchange cash or gold for safe passage of ships. The alternative routes of some countries have entered a more mature stage. 4. Iran may intensify energy and shipping pressure, which could potentially prevent the outflow of oil and refined products that once freely passed through the strait. For Iran, maintaining chips means ensuring a reduction in energy outflows and restricting the flow of shipping and oil. This is an opportunity for Iran to reduce the influence of the United States in the Gulf region and exert its own power in the area. 5. The geopolitical credibility of the United States may be damaged. If the outside world forms the impression that "the United States is not only unable to protect its own interests, but also unable to protect the interests of its allies", it is undoubtedly a negative signal for countries that are already concerned about US foreign policy. Trump's actions on Venezuela and its oil issues, his advocacy for Canada to become the 51st state, his ambitions for Greenland, and his hesitation on NATO issues do not help improve the situation. Various parties may attempt to bypass the United States and establish a new alliance. This trend has already been reflected in the economic field, especially after Trump implemented tariff policies last year. 6. The impact of the US Iran standoff may spill over. If the US finds it difficult to contain Iran, geopolitical risks related to Russia and others may also increase. An important signal conveyed by last year's tariff stick was that the former allies of the United States could only rely on themselves, and the era of "trade policy serving foreign policy and global security goals" is fading away. 7. The circulation of petrodollars faces variables. The circulation of petrodollars has been an important component of the global financial system for decades. Although the US dollar will continue to dominate in the coming years, the flow of petrodollars may become less stable and more prone to transfer. Doubts about US political stability and security in the region make it easier for petrodollars to flow towards diversification and potential alternatives.