The monetary policy minutes at 2 o'clock in the middle of the night, whether to read or not, I'm a bit conflicted! Since taking office, meetings like these seem to have failed to promote market volatility or provide market guidance. During Powell's reign, practicing Tai Chi allowed you to see yin-yang fish, while Walsh directly gave you an inescapable fog. The current market seems to be paying more attention to the US Treasury issue. With Walsh's insistence on not providing policy forward guidance, it is unlikely that the monetary policy minutes will provide clear statements on the US Treasury issue, and it is even uncertain whether they will mention it or not! That gaze still needs to turn back to the US Treasury! Now the price of US Treasury TLT20 long-term bonds is weakening, and the 10/30 bond ratio is rising, giving the impression that the market has entered a period of weak risk awareness. Bitcoin, as a barometer of risk appetite, is oscillating, gold, as a barometer of safe haven sentiment, is also oscillating, VIX has rebounded slightly after hitting a low point of the year, and crude oil prices are also fluctuating without any ups or downs! The competition for the Strait of Hormuz is heating up, while S&P and Nasdaq, which serve as references for market frenzy, are constantly breaking new highs. Before the midterm elections in history, it seems that there has been a significant pullback in the US stock market, and it is highly likely that this is a risky event. Funds should withdraw and take a wait-and-see approach as a defense. So now the overall result is: 1: Bitcoin has shown that risk appetite has not rebounded, even after the weekly level 5 wave has finished, there is no improvement. 2: Although gold has not given a safe haven signal (note: gold not only has a safe haven attribute, it also has a pricing logic for real interest rates and a pricing attribute for the US dollar. The safe haven effect of geopolitical crises is often directly offset by the rise of real interest rates on US bonds), US bonds have given it a safe haven signal (note: this is a signal of tightening interest rates and does not represent a traditional safe haven signal) 3: The VIX index has hit a low point, which is a risk signal and a negative correlation factor, 4: The oil price is neither rising nor falling, and the game between the US and Iran is still brewing. Lang Ge is now very tough! To summarize, the market is quite chaotic, with multiple factors intertwined! I think what should be done now is to focus on whether the above factors are fulfilled while defending, Especially with the rise of the US stock index, internal individual stocks are gradually falling behind. I haven't written anything related to macro for a long time! For long-term work, you can refer to the core points mentioned above and keep an eye on changes. For short-term work, it doesn't matter.