财经悟空|Aug 19, 2026 03:05
BTC has reached above the previous consolidation zone. Historically, during the end of bear markets, extended sideways movement often occurs, following the principle of 'the longer the base, the higher the breakout.' After consolidating, there's a high probability of a significant move.
On the 4-hour chart, it reversed upward after not breaking below the previous low of 62,200.
Currently, Bybit BTCUSDT funding rates have turned negative. Keep an eye on whether Binance and OKX funding rates also turn negative. Negative rates indicate a large number of shorts entering the market. Historically, negative funding rates often lead to short-term upward moves, with the possibility of a short squeeze.
Two scenarios and trading rules:
Scenario 1: Price surges to fill the gap and then quickly pulls back, forming a clear short signal. So far, there are no signs of a pullback in the current market.
Scenario 2: Many traders place short positions at the gap level, but the price continues upward. In this case, it may challenge the previous high, with a target around the 67,000 zone.
Key pivot point: 62,200
If the price holds above 62,200, avoid blindly shorting.
Shorting should only be considered after the price tests the high and confirms a valid pullback signal, or if the previous high is briefly broken.
If U.S. stocks experience a sharp correction, it could drag Bitcoin down in a correlated move, creating short-term shorting opportunities.
Additionally, SpaceX has a major unlock event on August 21. Levels 146 and 149 may present shorting opportunities, with a stop-loss at 150.
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