[Analysis: $1.8 Trillion 'Panic' Could Trigger 30% Volatility in Bitcoin] BlockBeats News, August 18 — Bitcoin has recently been trading sideways, and the market is closely monitoring the surging global bond yields. Sean Farrell, Head of Digital Asset Strategy at Fundstrat, stated that Bitcoin's recent volatility is at historically low levels, and extreme market movements could occur in the coming months. Historical data shows that under similar circumstances, Bitcoin's median absolute volatility over the subsequent 60 days is approximately 30%. This week, global bond yields have risen sharply. The yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury reached its highest level since 2002, the 20-year yield hit a peak not seen since 2006, and the 10-year yield climbed to its highest level since 2007. The market believes that factors such as the expansion of the U.S. fiscal deficit, rising costs of AI infrastructure development, high oil prices, and uncertainty in monetary policy are collectively driving up long-term yields. Yardeni Research noted that while the market has not yet entered a state of 'panic,' it is closely watching whether the so-called 'bond vigilantes' will regain dominance in the market. Bitunix analysts pointed out that the market's focus has shifted from whether the Federal Reserve will raise or lower interest rates to long-term U.S. Treasury yields, energy prices, inflation risks, and global risk premiums. Additionally, Koinly CEO Robin Singh stated that Bitcoin could experience another round of sharp declines in the coming months, potentially dropping to the mid-$50,000 range. If historical patterns persist, the market may need to undergo one final round of 'panic-driven capitulation' to confirm the true bottom of this cycle. [Original Link]