Brothers, the latest batch of U.S. data is looking a bit off: Inflation is dropping, consumption is cooling, employment hasn’t collapsed, but corporate hiring is clearly less aggressive than the past two years. It doesn’t look like an imminent recession, more like the economy is slowly easing off the gas pedal. July CPI year-over-year was 3.4%, core CPI fell to 2.5%, and PPI month-over-month didn’t continue accelerating. Price pressures are indeed easing, and the reasons for further rate hikes are decreasing, but the Fed isn’t quite ready to confidently cut rates yet. Why? Because year-over-year inflation is still above the 2% target, and service prices remain somewhat sticky. The market can lower rate hike expectations, but it can’t directly interpret this as rate cuts coming soon. Compared to inflation, I’m more focused on changes in consumption. July retail sales fell 0.6% month-over-month, and the control group also declined. It’s not that U.S. residents suddenly ran out of money; it’s that high interest rates are changing their spending habits: credit costs are rising, big-ticket purchases are being postponed, and non-essential spending is starting to shrink. If this trend continues, the first to feel the pressure might not be the indices, but consumer companies’ revenues and profit margins. Moving forward, even within the same consumer sector, business outcomes could vary drastically. Real estate is in a similar situation. High mortgage rates are suppressing transactions, but inventory isn’t loose enough to drive home prices down quickly. Buyers think it’s too expensive, sellers don’t want to give up their low-interest loans from the past, and the result is: transaction volumes freeze first, and prices grind down slowly. Employment remains the most critical buffer for the U.S. economy right now. Initial jobless claims are still at relatively low levels, indicating companies aren’t yet laying off workers en masse. But hiring intentions are clearly weakening, and continuing claims for unemployment benefits are worth watching. Simply put, people with jobs are still feeling okay for now, but fresh graduates, job hoppers, or those re-entering the workforce might already be sensing a cooler job market. So the Fed isn’t in a rush right now. The need for further rate hikes is diminishing, but the conditions for immediate rate cuts aren’t fully ripe either. What really needs to be watched next are core PCE, service inflation, continuing jobless claims, and whether August non-farm payrolls all weaken simultaneously. This “slowing growth without recession” combo is short-term friendly for U.S. Treasuries and quality growth stocks, but the consumer sector will continue to diverge. The real question now isn’t about whether the Fed will suddenly pivot at a specific meeting, but rather how long residents’ demand and corporate profits can hold up under sustained high interest rates.