Murphy
Murphy|8月 18, 2026 08:18
Of course! For high-net-worth BTC holders' cost basis, we mainly look at these groups: 1. Holding 100-1k: $66,700; 2. Holding 1k-10k: $61,200; 3. Holding 10k-100k: $53,500; Among these, we primarily focus on the mid-sized holders, as they are closer to individual investors. The ultra-large holders may include exchanges, third-party custodians, hedge funds, etc. Currently, BTC is right within the cost band, near the cost basis of investors holding less than 10k BTC, and it has never fallen below the lower limit of the cost band. In terms of relative position, this is quite similar to the period between June and October 2022. In the past two cycles, the bear market bottom appeared after breaking below the whales' cost band. If this cycle also breaks below $53,000, it would be a clear signal. However, this doesn’t mean it will definitely happen this time. We shouldn’t predict—having a plan for both “if it happens” and “if it doesn’t” is the right approach.
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