Murphy
Murphy|Aug 18, 2026 04:35
The definition of First Buyers refers to entities whose holdings are grouped together if there have been no balance changes since their initial acquisition. Once you understand this mechanism, you'll see that the rise and fall of this curve are driven by two factors: the inflow side represents new entities making their first acquisition, while the outflow side represents old entities engaging in any transactions. Looking at the chart, the sharp drop from 4.4M to 3.2M coins between October 2025 and February 2026 indicates that a large number of entities, which had previously never moved their holdings, acted during the crash. They either sold at a loss and became Loss Sellers, or doubled down and became Conviction Buyers. In the past four months, holdings have quickly rebounded from 3.2M to nearly 3.9M coins, showing that a significant number of brand-new entities are making their first acquisitions in the $60,000 range. This is direct evidence of new demand entering the market. However, the accumulation of tokens required to kickstart a bull market is still a ways off. We can only say that, overall, things are moving step by step in a positive direction. Note: 1. The statistics here refer not to wallet addresses but to new entities holding coins for the first time in terms of on-chain clustering. This data is not polluted by internal exchange addresses or multiple addresses operated by the same user. 2. The Coldcard hardware wallet security vulnerability at the end of July caused a large number of old coins to be transferred to new wallets, which may impact this data.
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