BitUnix analyst: US Treasury yields approach 20-year highs, US Iran risks rise, combined with fiscal pressure, market volatility risks still persist According to BlockBeats, on August 18th, global markets were simultaneously facing three factors: geopolitical risks between the US and Iran, rising long-term US bond yields, and a repricing of Federal Reserve policy expectations. The yield of the 30-year treasury bond of the United States rose to 5.31%, the highest since 2007, and Japan, the United Kingdom and China all reduced their holdings of US bonds in June, reflecting that long-term US bonds are facing multiple pressures from fiscal supply, overseas demand and inflation risks. On the other hand, after the expiration of the 60 day understanding between the United States and Iran, Trump stated that he would not seek an extension and warned that if Oman obstructs the resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, military action may be taken; Iran has stated that it has shifted its policy from defense to a more aggressive direction and has demanded that the US fulfill its commitments within a few weeks. If diplomatic mediation continues to fail, the uncertainty of navigation and crude oil supply in the Strait of Hormuz may further push up energy prices and affect global interest rates and risk asset valuations through inflation expectations. In terms of monetary policy, a Reuters survey shows that 90% of economists expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in September, and about 80% believe that interest rates will not be adjusted throughout the year. This is in contrast to the recent weakening of the US dollar, but what really deserves attention is that short-term interest rates are affected by economic data, while long-term interest rates continue to be affected by fiscal deficits, treasury bond supply and inflation risks. This means that 'the Fed not raising interest rates' does not necessarily mean' loose financial conditions', and long-term funding costs may still remain high. Gold has benefited from fiscal pressure and global central bank demand for increased holdings, and has continued to maintain its strength in recent times. This indicates that the market is gradually trading a longer-term macro logic: when the supply of US debt, interest expenditure and treasury bond continues to increase, even if the monetary policy is not further tightened, the risk premium between long-term interest rates and US dollar assets may still rise. In terms of the stock market, VIX fell to an intra year low of 14.2, the S&P 500 index has risen by about 16% over the year, and stock funds have also recorded inflows for 12 consecutive weeks. However, the continuous rise in long-term bond yields, weakened consumer data, and the escalating situation in the Middle East have created a significant gap with the extremely low volatility of the stock market. This means that the core risk in the current market may not necessarily come from a single event, but rather from the mismatch between low volatility asset pricing and high interest rates, geopolitical and fiscal pressures. The cryptocurrency market also shows capital differentiation. The net outflow of cryptocurrency ETFs in the past week was about 90.55 million US dollars, but they still had a net inflow of about 977 million US dollars in the past month, and a net outflow of about 5.406 billion US dollars in the past quarter. The short-term capital momentum has not yet formed a clear resonance, and high volatility assets such as BTC are still susceptible to the influence of US dollar liquidity, long-term returns, and global risk appetite. Therefore, what the market really needs to observe in the near future is not simply the expectation of interest rate cuts or hikes, but whether the long-term cost of funds continues to rise and whether the US Iran situation further transforms into energy and inflation shocks. If the 30-year US Treasury yield remains high or even continues to rise, while the risk of the Strait of Hormuz pushes up energy prices, it will put higher discount rates and risk premium pressures on high valuation assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies; On the contrary, if geopolitics cool down, inflation continues to fall, and long-term bond yields are under control, risk assets will have better conditions to maintain their current high valuations.