深潮TechFlow|Aug 18, 2026 01:21
[Morgan Stanley Lowers Pop Mart Target Price by 13%, Citing High Base Pressure and Other Challenges]
Deep Tide TechFlow reports that on August 18, Morgan Stanley lowered the target price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) from HK$247 to HK$214, citing high base pressure in the second half of the year and a significant slowdown in overseas sales. Analysts stated in the report that due to a lack of incremental information and high-frequency data showing a sharp decline in overseas sales, investors are anchoring to the most bearish data ahead of the earnings release and generally maintaining a pessimistic outlook. Overly high expectations from retail investors remain a major downside risk, as they account for a significant proportion of the shareholder structure.
The company is forecasted to achieve a 29% growth in sales revenue and an 18% increase in net profit to RMB 5.4 billion in the first half of the year. Management is expected to guide second-half sales to exceed those of the first half while maintaining a cautious outlook on year-over-year performance. The 'Overweight' rating is maintained, as the compound annual growth rate of earnings for 2026-2028 is estimated to reach 13%, primarily driven by a re-acceleration of overseas market sales. Total sales are projected to return to growth by 2027. (Jin10)
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