Phyrex|Aug 17, 2026 16:17
The United States is being held back by Hormuz, and Iran is also being dragged down by inflation
Recently, it has been said that the United States is becoming increasingly uncomfortable in the Iran War, with strategic oil reserves continuously decreasing, military spending continuing to increase, and allies such as South Korea and Europe constantly being pulled together to share the costs.
But Iran is also very difficult now.
According to the latest data released by the Iranian Statistical Center, the annual inflation rate as of July has reached 66%, with a year-on-year increase of 87.9% in CPI and a year-on-year increase of 128% in food prices. Simply put, the food that was bought for 100 yuan a year ago now costs an average of 228 yuan.
And the impact of war has begun to directly enter the lives of ordinary people. Among the Iranian residents interviewed by Reuters, some have lost their jobs due to project shutdowns, while others have been forced to lay off employees due to the inability to continue their import and export business. Many families have started to reduce their consumption of meat and other foods, spending their wages within a few days of receiving them.
Although Iran has raised the minimum wage by about 60% this year, due to the continued depreciation of the rial, the minimum wage in US dollars has actually dropped from around $105 at the end of March to $86.
Nowadays, Iran's transportation costs for many basic commodities are increasing. The US maritime blockade has restricted Iran's oil exports and also affected gasoline imports. After the destruction of land bridges and transportation facilities, some goods that were originally shipped by sea can only enter Iran by taking longer routes, resulting in higher prices.
Last week, Iranian President Pezehezhian himself admitted that the problems Iran is currently facing have increased several times, while income is still declining. Iran sells less oil and is able to pay less taxes when businesses face operational difficulties.
Iran's daily gasoline production has reached its limit of approximately 130 million liters, but its daily consumption is about 137 million liters. The gap that could have been filled by imports before is becoming increasingly difficult to solve due to the blockade.
So Hormuz is actually a double-edged sword for Iran.
Iran's control of Hormuz can impede global oil transportation, transmit oil prices and inflationary pressures to the United States, Europe, and Asia, and increase the economic cost of continuing the war in the United States.
But the longer the war continues, the greater the cost Iran will have to pay for itself. The United States consumes military spending, strategic oil reserves, and political support from allies, while Iran consumes residents' purchasing power, employment, fiscal revenue, oil exports, and social stability.
Especially after the year-on-year increase of 128% in food prices, it is difficult to understand this as just a macroeconomic figure. Food, rent, wages and other things affect the lives of ordinary people every day. Once the war continues to drag on, the real danger is that economic pressure will once again transform into domestic political pressure.
At the beginning of this year, there were nationwide protests in Iran due to economic issues. One of the biggest concerns of Iran's top management is that new economic sanctions and worsening living costs will once again trigger large-scale social unrest.
So now both the United States and Iran actually have their own time pressures. The United States hopes that Iran cannot withstand economic pressure first, and Iran hopes that the United States cannot withstand war, oil prices, and pressure from allies first. This war continues to drag on, and it's not entirely about who has more missiles, but who can withstand longer periods of economic consumption.
The United States is currently facing difficulties, and Iran is no exception.
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