qinbafrank
qinbafrank|8月 17, 2026 16:08
Comparison of the U.S. stock market trends in August vs. April-May: 1) Underlying drivers In April, it was Anthropic's ARR acceleration + cloud providers' performance. This time in August, it's mainly the earnings reports from cloud providers confirming that AI demand is still skyrocketing, and commercialization continues to accelerate. Just like what was discussed in July: https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/2074754779755295164?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A, the performance of major CSPs has become a more important metric and weight for measuring AI commercialization. 2) Sector drivers and diffusion pace In April, the sector's engine was NVIDIA + storage, then it spread to optical interconnect, CPUs, 800V/power, and finally to equipment. This time in August, the sector's engine has shifted to NVIDIA + CSP/software + optical interconnect. The core logic is that more and more data centers are being built, amplifying the demand for interconnects. The mass production of CPO switches has also moved interconnects from expectations to actual performance realization. CSPs and software essentially indicate that AI adoption is deepening. In the past few trading days, the trend has just started to spread to storage and packaging/testing, while CPUs and 800V/power seem to be just beginning to emerge. 3) Macro environment Oil prices are in a high-level consolidation phase after a big surge: in April, it was around $100, and recently it's between $85-90. The difference is that back then, the market expected a quicker resolution, whereas now the game seems to be trending toward a longer-term outlook. Long-term interest rates: From April to June, the median US10Y was around 4.4%, but now it has clearly risen to 4.65%-4.7%. However, the market's rate hike expectations are lower now compared to Q2.
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